Updates from AIJAC

Ze'evi's Murder/Anthrax Answers

October 18, 2001
Number 10/01 #09

First in tonight's Update, David Makovsky, former Jerusalem Post Editor, now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, looks at the political and international implications of the assassination of Israeli Tourism Minister Rehavam Zeevi by the PFLP faction of the PLO. Next, the Jerusalem Post reminds us that Zeevi, though probably the farthest right figure in the Israeli Knesset, was no cardboard cutout "hardliner."

In addition, Bioterror experts Wendy Orent analyses what is currently known about the anthrax attacks in the US, which has sparked similar scares in Australia, Israel and through out the world.

PEACEWATCH
THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE'S SPECIAL REPORTS ON THE ARAB-ISRAELI PEACE PROCESS

October 17, 2001

ZE'EVI ASSASSINATION AND ITS POSSIBLE AFTERMATH

By David Makovsky

The assassination of Israeli cabinet minister Rehavam Ze'evi today outside his hotel room in Jerusalem is unprecedented. With the Palestinian Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) taking responsibility, it marks the first time that an Israeli cabinet minister has been assassinated by a Palestinian since Israel was established. According to Israeli security officials, the assailants fled in the direction of Palestinian Authority (PA)-controlled territory, that is, Ramallah. In front of the cameras, PFLP in Gaza immediately took responsibility, declaring that the assassination was in retaliation for Israel's killing on August 27 of PFLP leader Abu Ali Mustafa.

Ze'evi had an illustrious military career and was involved in the Israeli military since serving as a Palmach commando in the prestate days. He reached the rank of general while serving in most of Israel's wars. Ze'evi headed a far-right Israeli political party, and had just resigned in protest of Israel's withdrawal from the hilltops of Hebron and its loosening of restrictions on Palestinians. His resignation was to go into effect today. However, as a result of the tragedy, the 6 other parliamentarians poised to quit rescinded their resignations from the 83- member coalition in the 120-member Knesset.

Palestinian Steps May Influence Israeli Actions

The way PA chairman Yasser Arafat deals with killers may influence Israeli actions. In a special memorial ceremony at the Knesset today, Sharon blamed Arafat for Ze'evi's death. The prime minister charged that Arafat is responsible because "he has done nothing serious against terror." He said at a top security meeting that "everything has changed." Member of Knesset (MK) Yossi Sarid, head of the Meretz opposition and at the polar opposite of the Israeli political spectrum from Ze'evi, warned from the Knesset podium: "The murder of Rechavam Ze'evi puts the Palestinian Authority to a harsh test. It cannot remain silent for a long time over [Ze'evi's] spilt blood and it must carry out particularly sharp measures to suppress the murderers. No more dodging and no more avoiding. This test of the Palestinian Authority and Arafat is immediate and there is no possibility to postpone it. If they fail the test the land will burn with a fire that no one will be able to extinguish."

PFLP spokesman Ali Jaradat was detained in the aftermath of the killing, but was immediately released. He subsequently gave an interview on Al-Manar Hizbullah satellite television, and reportedly said that the PFLP will continue to avenge the death of Mustafa. Jaradat said after the killing of Mustafa that the Israeli government "has opened the gates of hell on itself and now the fire is approaching it."

Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer urged that Arafat extradite the killers. It should be pointed out that the PA has never extradited killers of Israelis to Israel. The call for extradition comes, however, amid a backdrop of the PA tending to release terrorists shortly after they are jailed.

As a result of the killing, the domestic political pressure on Sharon is likely to intensify. Sharon had already received a clear warning shot across the bow from the announcement by seven rightists that they were defecting from the coalition. Former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu was clearly expected to be beneficiary of the defection, led by his former chief of staff Avigdor Lieberman. While the parliamentarians may remain in the Sharon coalition for now, the message is that Sharon's ideological base is shaky. This has not been offset by support by the left flank of his coalition. He cannot count on Labor to automatically endorse his policies.

Halting of Arafat's Momentum?

The Ze'evi assassination comes at a bad time for Arafat. Arafat has racked up many political achievements in the last few weeks, despite Israel's complaints about the lack of arrests. Specifically, Arafat won a Bush administration declaration that the United States has a "vision" for a Palestinian state. This idea is expected to be elaborated upon in a speech by Secretary of State Colin Powell in advance of the gathering of foreign ministers from all over the world for the UN General Assembly meeting in mid-November. Moreover, Arafat won an imprimatur for fighting terrorism as he was hosted this week by British prime minister Tony Blair at Ten Downing Street. Moreover, amid fears that he would be on the wrong side of the Osama bin Laden issue, Arafat has put distance between himself and bin Laden internationally: last week his troops shot at a few Palestinian demonstrators at an Islamic college in Gaza. According to a Bir Zeit University poll taken last week, the Palestinian public overwhelmingly opposes U.S. action against the Taliban in Afghanistan by a 76 percent margin.

Impact on Bush Administration Efforts

The killing of Ze'evi comes as the Bush administration had been pressing both the Sharon government and the PA to reach a truce during the U.S. prosecution of its war in Afghanistan. This killing will at minimum delay, and perhaps derail, the American efforts.

The Ze'evi killing could engender an effort by Sharon to extricate Israel from Bush administration initiatives. In the aftermath of the September 11 bombings, Sharon has felt increasingly uncomfortable with U.S. efforts to assemble a coalition involving Arab parties for support in the war against bin Laden. The apex of this discomfort came two weeks ago, when Sharon publicly suggested that the Bush administration was engaged in appeasement of the Arabs just as Britain's Neville Chamberlain sacrificed Czechoslovakia to the Nazis. The reaction to the "Czech" speech was fierce in the United States, and Sharon subsequently apologized. Yet Sharon has been irked by what he privately believes is an American double standard in dealing with terror. While President Bush openly declared that he wants bin Laden "dead or alive," the State Department expressed disapproval this week for Israel's killing of a Hamas operative whom Israel charges was involved in the the killing of twenty-one Israeli teenagers at a Tel Aviv disco in June. In the aftermath of the killing of Ze'evi, Powell called Sharon. After expressing condolences, according to Israel Army Radio, Powell urged Sharon to exercise restraint. This urging was reportedly rejected by Sharon. It should also be pointed out that President Bush condemned the Ze'evi killing, and the White House made clear that it expects the PA to fight terrorism.

Sharon may see the Ze'evi killing as changing the current equation; he has been in a tight spot. Until now, Sharon has found it difficult to resist a war-time administration led by President Bush with a "ninety-plus" approval rating. Especially in face of threats by his own foreign minister, Shimon Peres, Sharon has heretofore acceded to U.S. insistence that he comply with certain terms. Thus, Sharon agreed to withdraw the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from incursions it made last week into certain Hebron hilltops where Palestinian snipers had killed a Jewish settler's baby; this, apart from easing roadblocks and expanding to twelve miles the area permitted for fishing opposite the northern Gaza Strip. Sharon has chafed that of the list of 108 people that Israel gave Arafat to arrest on grounds that they were involved in terrorism, Defense Minister Ben-Eliezer reports that only one was arrested. Moreover, while the amount of violence in the West Bank and Gaza is much lower than before, Palestinians have suggested that the killing of IDF soldiers and settlers remains "fair game" and cannot be seen to be part of any truce.

David Makovsky is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute.

'He was an officer and a gentleman'

By Miriam Shaviv

Jerusalem Post, October, 18 2001

JERUSALEM (October 18) - Colleagues of Rehavam Ze'evi yesterday mourned the murdered minister as a cultured and mild-mannered man, whose gentle personality was often at odds with his public image as a hard-liner.

"He was an officer and a gentleman," MK Avigdor Lieber-man told a meeting of the National-Union-Yisrael Beiteinu faction. "Like the last of the Mohicans, he was a true representative of the generation which fought to establish, and maintain, the State of Israel."

"Although our political disagreements were harsh, our debates in the Knesset were very civil," said Meretz MK Avshalom Vilan. "He would often apologize for having to oppose me."

"As an enemy, he would never stab you in the back. He was respectful to every MK, Jew or Arab," agreed MK Michael Kleiner (Herut).

Ze'evi edited more than 65 books, most of them about the Land of Israel. He was a great reader, and had an enormous library of thousands of books, including many rare publications, Kleiner said.

The Jerusalem-born minister was also a stickler for the Hebrew language. He would correct people's mistakes, but unlike many people, his corrections were actually right, Kleiner said. One MK said that he had on occasion caught Ze'evi leafing through a dictionary, trying to find words he didn't know: "I'm not sure which letter he reached."

Ze'evi, who was apparently nicknamed Gandhi, was a man easily loved - gentle, pleasant, very clear about his priorities, recalled his assistant, Hagit Sachs. "He was important to people who worked for him on a personal level. I'd only been with him for five months but he knew every detail about my life."

MK Gideon Ezra first met Ze'evi after the Six Day War, when Ze'evi was OC Central Command and Ezra was in the GSS. "He had a clear outlook on life even then," said Ezra. "His love for the Land of Israel and for Jerusalem was obvious in everything he said and did.

"He was terribly efficient. He knew the Knesset regulations by heart."

"In his recent months as tourism minister, Ze'evi missed the debates in the Knesset. He was in a very problematic ministry, and although he tried to fight to improve the state of tourism here, the problem was greater than him. He wasn't tired, though, he was never tired," Ezra said of the 75-year old.

"In his final days, Ze'evi was in a defiant mood," said coalition chairman Ze'ev Boim. "I spoke to him for the last time on Tuesday morning, and asked him to take back his resignation. He didn't want to hear my reasoning. He was convinced that [Prime Minister Ariel] Sharon is following [Foreign Minister Shimon] Peres and that he wouldn't be able to influence the cabinet."

Anthrax in America

by Wendy Orent

The New Republic Online | Post date 10.17.01

We learned this morning that a letter opened Monday in Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle's office contained powerful, highly refined anthrax: Over 30 staffers and Capitol Hill police officers have tested positive for exposure. New York Governor George Pataki's midtown Manhattan office just reported an unconfirmed positive test for anthrax contamination. The House of Representatives has suspended operations through next week.

We are under attack. We don't yet know the full scale of the attack or the identities of the perpetrators. But at this point it is worth stepping back to consider what we actually know and what we have yet to determine. Despite the FBI's mantra about this being a "criminal investigation," this is a terrorist incident. It is coordinated, it is sophisticated, and it is dangerous. It has taken the life of one man and sickened several others. It is the product of highly skilled operatives with a clear intent: to terrify and to kill.

Beyond the fact that they happened, what do we know about the anthrax attacks in Washington, Florida, New York, Nevada, and New Jersey? First, with the exception of a letter from Malaysia received by a Microsoft office in Reno, which after extensive testing doesn't seem to contain anthrax, the anthrax letters appear to be part of a coordinated effort. The letters received by NBC in New York and American Media Inc. in Florida were apparently mailed at or around the same time--the 18th of September--eliminating the possibility that either is a copycat crime. Furthermore, the letter received in Daschle's office appears to be from the same sender as the NBC letter. Second, we know that both Trenton, New Jersey and Boca Raton, Florida--the locations of the post offices that handled the anthrax letters--were areas where the September 11 hijackers and some of their associates lived.

We also know the identity of the anthrax strain which killed Bob Stevens, the photo editor who died on October 5 in Florida. Genetic analysis performed by the Keim Laboratory at Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff identified it as the Ames strain, first isolated at Iowa State University from a dead cow. Further tests indicate that the strains found in the NBC newsroom are genetically very similar, if not identical, to the Florida strain. The strain sent to Senator Daschle's office has not yet been genetically fingerprinted, a process which takes days.

Ames is a reliably virulent anthrax strain--reliable enough, in fact, that it is used to test vaccines: If a vaccine can protect against Ames, it is thought to be effective. While it is technically accurate to call Ames a "naturally occurring" strain (as some reports have done), that description is misleading. The Ames strain was isolated from nature years ago; the chances that the terrorists or their associates independently isolated it from nature are vanishingly small. Rather, this is a garden-variety laboratory strain--a "vanilla strain" as one knowledgeable former intelligence officer describes it--widely available in agricultural and veterinary laboratories throughout the world.

What the Ames strain is not is as significant as what it is: It is not genetically modified or enhanced to be vaccine-resistant or antibiotic-resistant. It is not Vollum 1B, the devastatingly lethal strain weaponized by the United States bioweapons program before it shut down in 1969; nor is it one of the equally deadly strains weaponized by the Russians in the early 1990s. Nor is it a strain that originated in Iraq or Iran or any other nation thought to have developed a bioweapons program--it is American. It has, therefore, no genetic fingerprints which might lead us to a source--a biological laboratory or a state such as Iraq that has a known bioweapons program. "I would guess that trying to track down the Ames strain or a derivative of it would be a real Pandora's box," says Richard Spertzel, former chief bioweapons inspector of the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) in charge of investigating Iraqi weapons programs.

The fact that Ames was developed in the U.S. does not mean that it could not have been obtained and weaponized by a nation such as Iraq. According to Spertzel, in the 1980s Iraqi bioweaponeers tried to obtain the Ames strain from Porton Down, the biodefense research institute run by the British Ministry of Defense, and possibly from the private germ bank American Type Culture Collection (ATCC) as well. Although the Iraqis were able to purchase three different anthrax strains from the latter in the mid-eighties (including Vollum 1B), they do not seem to have acquired Ames from either of these sources. Of course, this doesn't mean they did not succeed in obtaining it from another source.

But the identity of the strain isn't the only place to look for clues to the provenance of the anthrax letter attacks. The preparation of the strain is also critical. Growing anthrax in a laboratory is one thing; turning it into a lethal weapon is another. A former intelligence officer puts it this way: There are roughly three levels of sophistication: low, medium, and high. Low would be a wet preparation, or slurry. While such a preparation can be delivered with a sprayer, it's difficult to get the spores into the air for long enough--and in small enough particles--to actually infect anyone. The one documented occasion when this was attempted was in 1993, when the Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo launched a series of anthrax attacks around Tokyo, which failed utterly--no one got sick. (This was due not only to the unsuccessful slurry-spray technique, but also, according to a genetic analysis by Paul Keim's laboratory announced last June, to Aum's use of the Sterne anthrax, an avirulent strain often used to vaccinate animals.)

An anthrax preparation of medium sophistication would consist of a dry powder capable of killing through inhalation. UNSCOM determined that the Iraqi weapons program produced dried anthrax as well as the more primitive wet form. Highly sophisticated programs, such as the old U.S. or Soviet programs, produced finely powdered anthrax, milled down to tiny particles 1 to 5 microns in diameter. These tiny particles are readily inhaled deep into the lungs, where the dormant spores are activated and begin to grow. Highly sophisticated programs also developed additives to stabilize the particles and overcome their inherent electrostatic charge. The Soviet bioweapons program was especially good at genetically engineering anthrax strains for antibiotic resistance.

These additives may be the key to determining the origin of the anthrax used in the attacks. "The [growth] medium is a question: if you know how to look you can tell this," says Ken Alibek, former Soviet bioweaponeer who now works on biodefense at Hadron Laboratories in Manassas, Virginia. Alibek insists that until we have analyzed the nature of the fermentation, additives, and stabilizers used in the terrorists' preparation, we know nothing. "They're on the list," says a ranking law enforcement representative, meaning they have yet to be investigated.

Initially, since only one man was known to have contracted anthrax, investigators believed that the anthrax preparation was of only moderate sophistication. The fact that anthrax particles lodged in the noses of several people exposed to the letters suggested to William Patrick III, the former head of the U.S. bioweapons program and recognized expert in the mechanics of bioweapons production, that the particles must have been rather crude, perhaps ten to twelve microns in size. Furthermore, Martin Hugh-Jones, an anthrax expert at Louisiana State University, feels that finely powdered spores would have flown more easily out of the envelopes and infected many more people: "It's like feathers with wings--it flies everywhere."

But mounting evidence suggests that we are no longer dealing with a moderately sophisticated enemy. The spores are clearly much finer than government scientists and law enforcement officers initially believed. The attack on Senator Daschle's office involved a very fine powder that still contained a high percentage of live anthrax spores. "The whole point is that it's dry," says Christopher Davis, former focus officer for biological weapons intelligence in the United Kingdom. "Someone knows how to dry down anthrax and its medium and grind it up--someone, somewhere, somehow, can do that and leave enough live spores in the mix to be dangerous." The attackers have been clever in covering their traces; the use of an ordinary anthrax strain leaves no footprints pointing to another nation, if another nation is involved. Until the U.S. goverment uses its full resources to investigate the actual materials--the additives, the stabilizers, the traces of growth medium--as well as the genetic composition of the strains, we won't know much more.

It is possible these are the actions of a group using a small laboratory and a desktop lyophilizer (the device used to freeze-dry bacteria). They may not have sophisticated delivery methods needed to produce a large-scale attack threatening thousands of people. Perhaps we have already seen the range of their power; perhaps hate letters with deadly powder is the worst that this band of terrorists can do. But it seems increasingly likely that we might not be so lucky. The use of these strains in a limited fashion may, rather, be a warning: "We have weaponized anthrax on your soil." Powdered anthrax of the refinement shown in the Daschle attack isn't made by amateurs: The hand that made this powder is an expert hand. It shows expertise that only a state-sponsored program is likely to have developed. U.S. intelligence reports indicate a connection between Iraqi intelligence and the September 11 hijackers: Mohammad Atta, leader of the hijackers, met with an Iraqi special agent in Prague last fall. Former UNSCOM leader Richard Butler sums it up this way: "There is no evidence for an Iraqi connection--but it's a fruitful line of inquiry."

Analysis of the particular characteristics of the anthrax powder used in the Daschle attack may give the U.S. government the evidence it needs.

WENDY ORENT writes frequently about biological weapons and emerging infectious diseases.