Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council

A round-up of news stories that readers may have missed today...

As I wrote earlier this year, a great deal of the problems facing the Arab world as it stumbles towards democracy stem from a conservative culture that is inhibiting female participation in society. Some very illuminative data on this issue is provided by Sara Hamdan in today's International Herald Tribune. As Hamdan explains, initiatives to develop an entrepreneurial culture in the public-sector dominated Arab states only address a small part of the issue; a much greater problem facing the Arab states is the absence of a great deal of their population from the workforce, this segment being overwhelmingly female.

Encouraging entrepreneurs to start new companies is one way to tackle this problem and promote job creation ... Analysts say these efforts will not make a big difference, however, if social attitudes do not change in societies that traditionally embrace culturally enforced gender roles and the social traditions of a patriarchal hierarchy - particularly in the Gulf countries...

Pakistan is a foreign policy conundrum for the West. While Pakistan has publicly been an ‘ally' to the West in fighting al-Qaeda and supporting the war in Afghanistan, privately its intelligence agencies work with the Taliban and support terrorist organisations. In addition, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is considered by many to be unstable, and therefore poses a very real threat to international security should it end up in the wrong hands.

An important article by Jeffrey Goldberg and Marc Ambinder in The Atlantic, entitled "The Ally from Hell' provide some interesting new insights and information relevant to the significant dangers posed by Pakistan's complex dual game:

"Pakistan lies. It hosted Osama bin Laden (knowingly or not). Its government is barely functional. It hates the democracy next door. It is home to both radical jihadists and a large and growing nuclear arsenal (which it fears the US will seize). Its intelligence service sponsors terrorists who attack American troops. With friends like this, who needs enemies?"

The Obama Administration has released explosive details of how Iran has become a safe haven for al-Qaeda.

It comes as the Administration is reportedly interested in refocusing world attention on, in the words of US Treasury Department's Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence David S. Cohen, Iran's "unmatched support for terrorism" as well as its ongoing nuclear weapons program.

What do Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan and Egypt have in common?

In the past week, all four countries have been abuzz with conspiratorial news stories suggesting that Israel has been maliciously meddling in their internal affairs.

Three bombs rocked crowded districts of Mumbai during rush hour on Wednesday, killing at least 21 people and injuring at least 141 people in the biggest attack on India since the November 2008 terrorist attacks also in Mumbai which were perpetrated by the militant Pakistani group Lashkar-e-Taibe.

Relations between the USA and Pakistan have been cool for some time, especially when it was revealed that the al-Qaeda leader, Osama bin Laden had been hiding for at least five years in Abbottabad - a town at the centre of Pakistan's military infrastructure. This revelation prompted a new round of accusations about Pakistani complicity with al-Qaeda.

The US has now announced that it is withholding $800 million ($A748 million) of cash and equipment to Pakistan's military. On July 10, William Daley, President Obama's Chief of Staff, said that the US had decided to withhold more than a third of the more than $2 billion annual package in protest at Pakistan's decision to cut back on counter-terrorism co-operation after Osama bin Laden's killing.

Just a few days after US President Barack Obama controversially announced a major withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban have struck the Intercontinental Hotel in the heart of Kabul.The ABC has reported that at least 6 gunmen and one suicide bomber attacked the hotel and holed-up for several hours, before they were eventually taken-out by NATO helicopters. The death toll currently sits at a minumum of 10. 

Witness Sayed Hussain said he was inside the hotel compound when the attack started.

"I saw five to six men in civilian clothing armed with rifles who started shooting when they entered,'' he said, speaking close to the scene. "I lay down on the ground and soon after the police arrived.''

Just a few hours after President Obama's recent speech on Afghanistan, there was a wide array of responses, positing a number of theories as to the ramifications of the new US policy.

In general, the focus was on Obama's decision to end the troop surge that he implemented only 18 months ago. Michael Cohen from the American Security Project writes in The Atlantic that Obama was never fully invested in the surge strategy and is now returning to a strategy which is more congruent with his generally dovish stance on foreign policy.

If there is one overriding takeaway from Obama's speech tonight, it is that the same President who 18 months ago was led by his generals into an escalation that he didn't appear to fully support has now taken back control of his policy in Afghanistan.

As reported recently on this site, US President Barack Obama has just given a landmark speech on the US policy in Afghanistan, including a timetable for the withdrawal of combat troops. The President gave a brief history of the war, concentrating primarily on his December 2009 "troop surge" decision, where he increased the number of US combat troops in Afghanistan by 33,000 in order to counter a resurgent Taliban. As he explained (Transcript via CBS):

...in one of the most difficult decisions that I've made as President, I ordered an additional 30,000 American troops into Afghanistan. When I announced this surge at West Point, we set clear objectives: to refocus on al Qaeda; reverse the Taliban's momentum; and train Afghan Security Forces to defend their own country.

Obama then announced that the surge was successful and will be withdrawn by the end of the year and the combat mission will end by 2014.

After much speculation that the US was gearing-up to pull out of Afghanistan, President Barack Obama has just given an address confirming that the US combat mission in Afghanistan will end by 2014, with the withdrawal beginning this year. He explained that 33,000 troops will be withdrawn by next year, thereby ending the controversial troop surge that is a hallmark of his presidency.

The speech is embedded below and the transcript can be viewed HERE. More on this shortly.

The death of Osama bin Laden will raise the inevitable question: What are we still doing in Afghanistan? The answer, of course, is that the mission in Afghanistan is about something bigger and more ambitious than eliminating al-Qaeda's leaders - most of whom, in any event, are probably living in Pakistan, as bin Laden was when the United States finally tracked him down. No, the mission in Afghanistan isn't about killing al-Qaeda members. It's about stabilising the country so that it can never again serve as the hotbed of extremism that it was until 2001, with all of the attendant national security and human rights problems that resulted.

There is so much material being published on the killing of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan on Sunday by US forces that this Update will not attempt to duplicate the widely reported news. Instead, it will focus on pieces providing an unusual perspective or analysing some under-reported elements and implications of this event.

First up is Barry Rubin who, in his usual insightful fashion, tries to place this event in some sort of historical context of the larger Islamist movement. Importantly, he argues that the Islamist movement extends way beyond the fate of al-Qaeda, and that other Islamist groups which are seeking to exploit state power - including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt - may be even more important and more dangerous in the long run.

One of the most pervasive myths about the Middle East is "linkage", the belief that the Arab-Israel conflict is the key to solving all other Middle Eastern problems, from the Iranian nuclear program, to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, to international terrorism, ethnic strife...

Much is being written about the exposure of 92,000 documents related to the Afghanistan conflict, released by the dissident activist organisation Wikileaks. This Update looks at the details and implications of these released documents.

In the wake of the failed May 1 Times Square bombing in New York and the subsequent arrest of Faisal Shahzad as the alleged bomber, much is being written about the lessons of the attempted attack, especially after the US government blamed the Pakistani Taliban for the attack, and an alleged collaborator was arrested in Pakistan.

The capture of the Taliban's second in command in Karachi in early February has been treated in the media as a major US coup and a watershed event in US-Pakistani cooperation in the war against the Taliban. It is, regrettably, nothing of the kind.

We begin today's Update with some analysis of US President Barack Obama's announcement he will send an extra 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan. The decision comes after the US commander in Afghanistan, and architect of the successful surge in Iraq, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, called for 40,000 more troops last August.

US President Barack Obama has announced his intention to conduct a review of US strategy in Afghanistan from first principles before deciding whether or not to accept General Stanley McChrystal's proposed strategy and request for more forces.

I picked an interesting moment to visit Pakistan: four terrorist attacks in less than a week. The first was at the World Food Program office in the capital: five killed. The second was in the Khyber Bazaar in Peshawar: more than 50 killed.

When General Stanley McChrystal was selected on May 11 of this year as the American and NATO commander in Afghanistan, it was by no means certain which approach he would employ. His background is almost entirely in counterterrorism.

Today's Update presents two articles that look at Pakistan, roiled by a slew of terrorist attacks this week as the bitter struggle against the Taliban continues. The third article looks at the ongoing tussle underlying the reconciliation talks between Fatah and Hamas.

Today's first two articles look at the implications of a report from the Washington Post claiming some Obama Administration officials believe the Taliban cannot be beaten and must therefore be coaxed into the Afghan political process.

The debate over strategy for Afghanistan and US President Obama's consideration of a request for more troops continues to rage, especially in the US.

Today's Update features two pieces on the situation in Afghanistan. First up, noted American strategic studies expert Anthony Cordesman, who helped advise the new commander in Iran, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, says that the principal reason the war is not being won is a shortage of resources.

Today, we offer an interpretation of the most recent Jakarta hotel bombings from one of the world's top experts on extremist terrorism in Southeast Asia, Dr. Zachary Abuza of Simmons College in the US. Abuza agrees with the dominant view that Malaysian-born terrorist Noordin Mohammed Top was likely behind the latest bombings but takes issue with arguments, particularly in the Australian media, that Top is operating largely independently of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI).

Today's Update contains some recent comments on the state of Israeli society - with an emphasis on the work of distinguished Israeli historian Michel Oren, who has just been named as Israel's next ambassador to the US.

Today's Update features some new pieces discussing the overall future direction of the Middle East - especially in terms of the growing Iranian attempts to dominate the region, challenging the Sunni-dominated status quo.

This Update adds more on Washington's possible policy toward Iran, as th Obama Administration pursues engagement, at a time when both the US Congress and the Israeli government are attempting to maximise the leverage the US President will have.

Today's Update offers some new material about the policy of the new Netanyahu Israeli government toward the Palestinian and other foreign policy questions.

As readers will no doubt be aware, the UN Durban Review Conference in now under way in Geneva. This is designed as a follow-up to the infamous 2001 Durban "anti-racism" conference, which was marred by large-scale antisemitism, as well as the singling out of Israel as the only country named as "racist."

Today's Update contains some additional material on Israeli-Palestinian peace prospects under the new US and Israeli governments. It also details some important new revelations about Hezbollah operatives allegedly targeting Egypt.

Israeli commentators have watched with interest the reaction to North Korea's illegal ballistic missile launch - under cover of a "civilian satellite" launch - on Sunday. They see the reaction of the US administration and international community as important signposts for their treatment of the Iranian nuclear and missile proliferation threat.

As readers will be aware, Israel's new government was sworn in on Tuesday. First up, the Jerusalem Post editorialises both about the bloated size of the new cabinet - 30 ministers and seven deputy ministers - and the need to move forward on a number of fronts despite the problematic size created by coalition politics.

Much has been made in the international media of allegations published in Haaretz a couple of weeks ago in which Israeli soldiers, speaking at a seminar, spoke about alleged Israelis misdeeds in the Gaza conflict in January.

Fears of impending disaster are hard to sustain, however, if you actually spend some time in Afghanistan, as we did recently at the invitation of General David Petraeus, chief of US Central Command. We spent eight days travelling from the snow-capped peaks of Kunar province near the border with Pakistan in the east to the wind-blown deserts of Farah province in the west near the border with Iran.

As readers are probably aware, US President Obama made a Nowruz (Persian New Year) message to the people and leaders of Iran, which is widely regarded as part of his efforts to initiate a dialogue with Iran.

This Update focuses on the state of the Israeli coalition negotiations, with Prime Minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu expected today to ask President Shimon Peres for an additional two weeks to form a government

This Update contains pieces analysing the state of efforts to form a Palestinian national unity government and the implications of such a development, if successful. The issue is particularly relevant in the wake of the decision last week by Palestinian Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad to submit his resignation.

The most recent International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran, which seem to indicate Iran has sufficient low-enriched uranium to produce a nuclear weapon if further enriched, has led to much differing speculation from American and Israeli officials about how close Iran is to actually producing such a weapon.

This Update features some pieces looking back, with a bit of hindsight, at the Gaza conflict at the beginning of this year, and the aftermath.

As readers may be aware, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is currently making her first visit to Israel in that role. This Update provides some advice about how to approach the conflict offered to her from knowledgeable sources.

As readers will be aware, Israeli President Shimon Peres asked Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu to try to form a new Israeli government last weekend on the basis that, although his party trailed Kadima by one mandate, he had the support of more parliamentarians.

As readers may have seen, the latest International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report says Iran probably now has enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb, if it were further processed. Meanwhile, a few weeks ago, Iran launched a small satellite, indicating improvement in its ballistic missile technology...

This Update features two pieces discussing the decision of the Obama Administration in the US to send representatives to planning sessions of the controversial Durban II "anti-racism" conference.

Israeli elections typically generate a great deal of speculation about their implications for peace prospects - much of it usually poorly informed or ill-founded, unfortunately. Last week's election was no exception.

As readers may be aware, after the counting of all regular votes, but not military and overseas ballots, Israel's election yesterday saw the ruling Kadima party, led by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, finish just ahead of the Likud party under former PM Binyamin Netanyahu.

As readers will doubtless be aware, Israelis are beginning to go to the polls for a general election even as this Update is being posted. This Update is devoted to material which hopefully will help readers understand better the implications as results come in.

With voting due next Tuesday, this Update features more analysis of the issues shaping Israel's election campaign, as well as some comment on Iran's reported satellite launch on Monday.

This Update features a couple of articles detailing the fact that the recent Hamas-Israel clash in Gaza can be seen as a a single skirmish in the larger "cold war" dividing the Middle East and pitting most Sunni Arab states against Iran, Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah and, increasingly, Qatar.

As readers will be aware, Iraq held orderly and pretty peaceful regional and local elections on Saturday. While the results are not yet known with any certainty, this Update features analysis of the overall implications of the apparently successful exercise of democracy in Iraq.

With Israel scheduled to vote in less than two weeks, this Update features some background on the state of the developing election campaign.

Today's Update leads with a couple of evaluations of Israel's Gaza operation, which ended a week and a half ago, from military and strategic specialists.

With new US President Obama now safely ensconced in the White House, it is appropriate to again look at the Middle East challenges he is likely to face.

As readers will probably be aware, on Saturday Israel announced a unilateral ceasefire coming into effect on Sunday. Hamas initially swore to fight on before announcing it would also implement a one-week ceasefire. Israel has now begun pulling many of its troops out of Gaza.

This Update continues this week's focus on various important aspects of the ongoing fighting between Israel and Hamas. First up is David Schenker, Arab politics expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Today's Update focuses on the wider regional factors and implications for the current conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

Today's Update is concerned with the ongoing violence in and around the Gaza Strip. There are ongoing, intensive diplomatic engagements in Egypt, trying to thrash out a ceasefire agreement that would prove lasting.

The UN Security Council has just passed a somewhat ambiguous call for a Gaza ceasefire, which is supposed to be "immediate" and "durable". The Israeli papers largely agree that Israeli forces have now reached a decision point - will they go into Gaza's cities and engage in house to house fighting with Hamas forces or accept the ceasefire and talks proposed by Egypt and France

As readers will probably be aware, Tuesday night saw tragic news that more than 30 people were killed at the Fakhura UNWRA school in Jabaliya after it was struck by Israeli counter-fire responding to Hamas mortar attacks from the school grounds. The official Israeli Foreign Ministry statement on this terrible incident is here.

There is a great deal of significant information, analysis and opinion available on the current Israel-Hamas military clashes in and around Gaza, and unfortunately, not all of it can appear in this Update. So, as a starting point, this Update will focus on the goals of Israel's military offensive, codenamed "Cast Lead"

The six month long Israel-Hamas ceasefire, originally negotiated by Egypt, is officially to end today, though in fact there has been enough violence in recent weeks to say it ended effectively in November.

Iran policy contains to be the focus of much debate as the Obama Administration in the US begins to take shape. This Update features some important new contributions to that debate.

Today's Update features information and comment on the latest disappointments and acts of bias at the United Nations - including ongoing preparations for a follow-up to the infamous 2001 Durban anti-racism conference in which antisemitism was widespread

This Update deals with the situation in Iraq, and the policy framework there for the Obama Administration, following the passage by the Iraqi parliament of the "Status of Forces Agreement" (SOFA) with the US last week.

It has been little noted in Australia, but there have been signs in recent months that the situation in the West Bank is improving, in terms of the threat to Israel from terrorism, the threat to the Palestinian Authority from Hamas, and the welfare of the population.

There has already been so much material in the media generally about the terrorist attack in Mumbai... Therefore, this Update is devoted to analysing elements of the attack, and the lessons that can be drawn from it, which were less prevalent in the general coverage.

There is much debate currently about whether the incoming Obama administration in the US should focus on Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking once it assumes office, and if so, how?

As readers will probably have read, analysts looking at the latest International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report into Iran say it appears that Iran has now accumulated enough low-enriched nuclear fuel to make a nuclear weapon if it was further enriched to bomb-grade.

Today's Update looks at the ongoing violence around Gaza, as more rockets and mortars are fired into Israel on a daily basis and whether it spells the end of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire agreed to in June.

This Update concentrates on additional advice for the incoming Obama Administration on dealing with the Iranian nuclear conundrum.

Today's Update contains some further advice about various Middle East policy issues for the future Obama Administration in the US from a variety of knowledgeable experts and observers.

It is of course too early to offer any significant commentary on Senator Barack Obama's ground breaking and dramatic victory in the US presidential election. However, this Update does offer some interesting commentary on how the next US president is likely to affect the Middle East...

Today's Update opens with an excellent piece by Thomas Friedman of the New York Times on the vulnerability of Iran to sanctions, thanks to the drop in oil prices.

As readers will probably be aware, over the weekend Israeli Prime Minister-designate Tzipi Livni admitted she had failed to form a new coalition and requested President Shimon Peres call for new elections, which he has now done.

This Update features pieces on the state of play between Hamas and Fatah in Palestinian society, as the two movements prepare both for an Egyptian-sponsored summit proposed for Nov. 9, and for a possible new round of confrontation.

This Update features two new pieces on how the global financial crisis might affect Israeli-Palestinian negotiations - with the general assumption being the effect will be pronouncedly negative.

Today's Update contains some additional good commentary on the Iranian nuclear conundrum likely to be faced by the next US president.

This Update features two pieces on the state of Israeli public opinion with respect, especially, to both the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and feelings about being Israeli.

Today's Update offers some new evaluations and innovative ideas on the future of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process over coming months.

As readers may be aware, when Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad addressed the opening of this year's session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) on Sept. 23. This Update includes comments on the significance of his speech and Ahmadinejad's reception.

This Update features analysis of the challenges faced by Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni now that she has won last week's Kadima party primary, Ehud Olmert has officially resigned as Prime Minister and Livni has been formally asked by President Peres to try to form a new government.

Today is the Kadima primary to choose a successor to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, so this Update features two major previews of the vote, which polls show seems likely to favour Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.

Today's Update features three pieces that assess the monumental effort since September 11, 2001 - principally shouldered by the United States under the stewardship of President George W. Bush - to eliminate the Islamist terror threat.

Today's Update focuses on the so-called "one-state solution" to the Israel-Palestinian conflict. The policy would see Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip become a single state rather than Israeli and Palestinian states living side-by-side.

This Update includes three pieces on the internal politics of Iran, with discussion also of how this might affect Iran's foreign policy, especially concerning the illegal nuclear weapons program.

Readers will probably have heard about the two boats, carrying pro-Palestinian activists and supplies in a stunt designed to protest Israel's blockade of non-essential supplies to Gaza, that were allowed by Israeli authorities to reach Gaza from Cyprus yesterday.

Today's Update features two new pieces detailing expert debates about the current status and capabilities of al-Qaeda. First up, Peter Bergen discusses the controversy between analysts who argue that the organisation has become largely localised and leaderless and those who argue that the central organisation in northern Pakistan is getting stronger.

The Georgia crisis goes on, with Russia apparently dragging its feet on the promised withdrawals of forces. There has been much comment on how the crisis in Georgia and the growing Russian willingness to challenge the West, will affect the Middle East.

This Update contains additional information and analysis of the situation in Gaza, in the wake of the Hamas-Fatah face-off there two weeks ago.

Today's Update focuses on Lebanon, and the progress of growing Syrian and Hezbollah dominance of that country, especially in the wake of a recent government decision which effectively makes Hezbollah and its "resistance" against Israel an official arm of the Lebanese government.

Iran provided an answer to the P5+1 proposal of various incentives for halting uranium enrichment, which was generally seen as simply stalling for time...

Readers will likely be aware of the drama of the past few days, where Hamas in Gaza used the pretext of a bombing to attack a Fatah-linked clan in Gaza, killing many, and sending more than 180 members of the clan fleeing to Israel.

As readers will largely be aware, on Wednesday night, embattled Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced to Israelis that he would not be contesting the leadership primary for his party, Kadima, scheduled for September 17, and will resign the prime ministership at that time.

Today's Update leads with a report from Middle East media monitoring organisation MEMRI that summarises two articles from Kuwaiti newspapers alleging Iran is building a secret nuclear reactor in the south west of the country.

The Israel-Hezbollah exchange of prisoners for the bodies of abducted soldiers last week has renewed the focus on the political battle occurring inside Lebanon, as Hezbollah tried to capitalise on the hero's welcome given to released terrorist and child-murderer Samir Kuntar.

Israelis have continued to react to the swap with Hezbollah of some live prisoners for the bodies of two Israeli soldiers. Many observers have been particularly horrified by the spectacle of Lebanon making a national hero of child murderer Samir Kuntar, who was released in the deal.

Israelis are intensely debating at the moment the pros and cons of prisoner swap overnight with Hezbollah, which includes Israel trading five Lebanese prisoners, including the notorious child-killer Samir Kuntar, in exchange for the bodies of two Israeli soldiers, Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, abducted in the raid which sparked the 2006 war.

This Update features two pieces dealing with Hamas' strategy now that a ceasefire has been declared. First up is the always uniquely tuned-in Ehud Yaari arguing, based on his incomparable sources on the Palestinian side, that Hamas wants the ceasefire to last and will likely seek to extend it even beyond the six months it is scheduled to run.

Today's Update offers analysis of the ostensibly ambiguous, but actually very negative, Iranian response to the latest international offer of incentives (called the "P5+1" proposal, because it is signed by the 5 permanent UN Security Council members, plus Germany) to halt its nuclear enrichment efforts - which have been repeatedly declared illegal by the UN Security Council.

Today's Update opens with a discussion of Wednesday's terrorist attack on one of Jerusalem’s busiest streets, when a Palestinian construction worker from eastern Jerusalem ploughed a bulldozer into cars and buses. Three people were killed and 66 wounded in the attack.

This Update focuses on the recently announced prisoner exchange agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, approved in a 22-3 vote by the Israeli cabinet over the weekend.

Today's Update covers the week since the Gaza ceasefire, which has been marked by a lack of fire ceasing. Islamic Jihad fired three rockets into Israel from Gaza five days after the ceasefire went into effect. It said the attack was in response to an Israeli strike on an Islamic Jihad target in the West Bank.

This Update looks at the reported Israeli Air Force exercise conducted over Greece in the first week of June, which was widely interpreted as a dry run for a possible attack on Iran's nuclear installations.

This Update looks at the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas which came into effect in Gaza on Thursday. It was agreed to by both Israel and Hamas through the Egyptian mediators, meaning the sides did not actually talk to each other.

This Update contains three recent pieces reflecting on the development of Israel as a society, and particularly its sources of strength.

This Update features a couple of pieces of advice on policy toward Iran and its nuclear program being offered to the two US presidential candidates, John McCain and Barack Obama, as their race for the top job gets under way.

Today's Update contains some more differing analysis and opinion on the new indirect Israeli-Syrian talks. First up, top Israeli journalist and author Yossi Klein Halevi explains the sceptical view that appears to be predominant in Israel about the talks and the prospects of an Israeli-Syrian agreement.

In Israel, the often-embattled Prime Minister Ehud Olmert appears to be facing his worst political crisis to date. First, the public testimony by American businessman Morris Talansky, who is alleged to have given Olmert more than US$150,000 largely in cash, as well as others gifts, has shocked many Israelis.

As readers will be aware, Israel and Syria officially announced the resumption of peace talks this week, mediated by Turkey. Meanwhile, following last week's violent confrontation whereby Hezbollah took over much of Beirut, Lebanon's factions agreed to a Qatari-mediated deal, known as the Doha Accord.

As this Update goes out, the Israeli government is reportedly waiting for the response from Hamas to the conditional acceptance Israel conveyed to Egypt of the ceasefire proposal Egypt has been brokering.

This Update brings together some analysis of the crisis in Lebanon over the last week, which saw Hezbollah gunmen temporarily take over much of Beirut in fighting that left scores of people there and in the North, including one Australian, dead.

Israel's 60th Anniversary celebrations led to much comment on the real circumstances of 1948, and especially the causes of the Palestinian refugees from that war. Below are three good comments on that history from prominent Israeli academics.

Today's Update features some new pieces on strategies for dealing with the challenge posed by Iran and its proxies and allies, as well as analysis of the latest example of destablising behaviour by one such ally, Hezbollah, in Lebanon.

This Update highlights just a few of the many articles being printed around the globe to celebrate or mark Yom Hatzmaut (Israel's Independence Day) today, the sixtieth anniversary (in the Jewish calendar) of Israel's foundation.

The Israeli government is reportedly considering whether to accept a truce deal with Hamas and twelve other Palestinian terrorist factions brokered by Egypt, with senior Defence Ministry official Amos Gilad off to Egypt shortly to discuss the deal with Egyptian Intelligence Minister Omar Suleiman. This Update provides some background on the reported terms of the deal, and the considerations that will shape Israel's decision.

This Update focuses on two recent developments vis a vis Syria. Firstly, according to the US CIA Director, what Israel destroyed in a mysterious airstrike in Syria last September was a plutonium producing nuclear reactor, capable of producing enough plutonium for one to two nuclear bombs per year, built with North Korean assistance.

Much is being made of claims by former US President Jimmy Carter, following controversial meetings with the Hamas leadership, that Hamas would accept a two-state solution if approved by a Palestinian referendum.

This Update leads with some comment from the Washington Post on the latest revelations about the degree of Iranian involvement in the violence in Iraq. The editorial notes that the testimony of US Commander in Iraq General David Petraeus and Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker about the role of Iranian "special groups" in recent fighting in Iraq only adds to a general profile of Iranian regional aggression, including in Gaza and on the nuclear front.

A new study has come out detailing the military build-up Hamas has been undertaking in Gaza. Among its findings are that Hamas has brought 80 tons of explosives into Gaza since last summer, that it now has 20,000 men under arms, hundreds of whom have been trained in Iran, Syria and Lebanon, and has established a special suicide bomb unit.

This Update features several thoughtful pieces on the security dilemmas Israel faces as it attempts to meet US requests to ease conditions in the West Bank, and considers how to deal with the spiralling Gaza rocket problem.

Today's Update offers up two pieces exploring aspects of the ideology and rhetoric of Islamist extremists, particularly Hamas. First up, the New York Times offered a good long (and overdue) piece on Hamas' incitement to anti-Jewish hatred and various forms of violence from Gaza.

This Update features two articles on the Arab League Summit held in Damascus on the weekend, which saw most Arab heads of state refuse to attend in protest over Syrian misbehaviour in Lebanon and coziness with Iran.

This Update features a couple of interesting recent pieces on fighting al-Qaeda-style Islamist terrorism and also previews the upcoming Arab League summit to be hosted by Syria.

This Update focuses again on the situation in Gaza, and especially on Israeli options for managing it, as well as the original responsibility for the admittedly very difficult situation of Gazans. First up, the always insightful Professor Barry Rubin looks again at Israel's various options for dealing with the violence coming out of Gaza. Rubin argues that there are no good solutions, only plans to manage the problem.

This Update leads with two pieces on the latest round of UN sanctions on Iran, passed on Monday. First up, Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Ambassador to the UN, explains what the new UN resolution is intended to achieve, and the evidence on which it is based.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is back in the Middle East trying to get the Israel-PA talks, begun at Annapolis in November, restarted after the recent clashes in and around Gaza. This Update look at how the Gaza problem is hampering prospects in this area.

With Israel having concluded an incursion into northern Gaza after a bloody few days, and with rocket attacks now affecting the larger city of Ashkelon as well as Sderot, the question in Israel is what will happen next with respect to Gaza.

As readers will be aware, since yesterday, there has been a huge escalation in rocket attacks on Israel coming out of Gaza, and also a large number of Israeli counter-raids on Hamas offices, rocket launch squads and factories.

On Monday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) presented its latest report on the Iranian nuclear program, which stated that Iran had improved its compliance with inquiries, but also revealed new details about plans for nuclear warheads apparently worked on by Iran.

Today's Update contains some more information and accounts of the plight of the residents of the Israeli town of Sderot, who have been the main victims of daily rocket attacks from Gaza.

This Update is devoted to pieces on likely US Middle East policy during the coming year, the final one of US President George Bush's term of office.

As readers will probably be aware from the news, yesterday in Damascus a bomb in his car reportedly killed Imad Mugniyah, the Hezbollah chief of operations and a near legendary terrorist mastermind. This Update looks at who Mugniyah was, and the significance of his death.

The debate in Israel about how to react to the constant threats and rocket attacks from Hamas-controlled Gaza continues to be very intense. A major military operation into Gaza is being again debated, as are other methods, such as targeted attacks on the Hamas political leadership, and small temporary cuts to electricity supplies.

With an additional round of UN sanctions directed at Iran's nuclear program currently under intense discussion, and the permanent members of the UN Security Council having agreed on the outlines of a resolution, this Update looks at the state of play in this ongoing diplomatic effort.

As readers may be aware, there have been a series of developments related to the Sinai breakout by Hamas-led Gazans a week and a half ago. Egypt sealed the border to further crossings on Sunday, and said no similar breakouts would be tolerated.

The last time I saw Benazir Bhutto was over dinner at the Willard Hotel in Washington, DC, three weeks before her October 2007 return to Pakistan. She was in enormously good spirits, almost effervescent.

This Update focuses on analysis of the political implications of Hamas' breaking down of the border of southern Gaza last Wednesday morning, sending hundreds of thousands of Gazans into Sinai.

As readers will be aware, there has been a dramatic escalation in Israeli clashes with Palestinian terror groups around Gaza in recent days, with 130 rockets fired into Israel in 72 hours, mostly by Hamas, which had previously confined its fire to mortars.

While most of the coverage of US President Bush's recent Middle East trip focused on his interest in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, this was not his only (or, some would argue, even his main) purpose in visiting 10 Middle Eastern countries over the last week.

As identified in the previous Update, the two issues at the top of US President George Bush's agenda for his visit to Israel and the Middle East are the Israel-Palestinian peace process and the Iranian threat.

US President George W. Bush will begin a 9-day Middle East tour on Wednesday, starting with his first visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories as president. This Update focuses on the goals and potential significance of that visit.

As this is the first Update for 2008, we decided to both review 2007 and look at the challenges 2008 might bring in the Middle East.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad is claiming that the controversial US National Intelligence Estimate earlier this month, which asserted that Iran had stopped its nuclear weaponisation efforts in 2003, was a US "declaration of surrender." Iran is also hailing the Russian delivery of nuclear fuel for the Bushehr reactor a "great achievement".

This Update is devoted to analysis of issues related to the year of negotiations planned to follow Annapolis - as the first Israeli-Palestinian meeting occurred last week, and a major conference for donors to the Palestinian Authority is on in Paris this week.

This Update contains additional analysis of the new NIE report on Iran's nuclear program, with a special emphasis on what to do now in terms of how the report affects efforts to push forward with sanctions, particularly at the UN.

This Update is devoted to analysis of the latest US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) with respect to Iran, released Monday, which makes the surprising revelation that "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program...".

This Update contains some additional assessments of what last week's Annapolis conference accomplished from a variety of commentators with differing points of view.

As readers may be aware, Lebanon has had no president since last week. The term of the last president, pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud, ended on Nov. 23. However, no successor has been elected because of a stand-off between the pro-Syrian opposition, led by Hezbollah, and the anti-Syrian government, led by PM Fouad Sinora and Saad Hariri, son of assassinated former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.

With the Annapolis conference now finished, and having gone more or less as predicted - providing the basis of a negotiating process rather than a major peace breakthrough - this Update looks at the statements made, and the way forward.

This Update features additional discussion of the significance and prospects of the Annapolis conference, due to begin tonight, Australian time. In a triumph for American diplomacy, it looks like the conference will feature significant participation from Arab states, including both Saudi Arabia and Syria.

The Annapolis meeting on Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking is now set to go ahead next Tuesday, after invitations were issued two days ago. This Update is devoted to background, predictions and analysis of various aspects of the meeting.

This Update leads with two reactions to Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat's declaration, which we noted yesterday, that the Palestinians will never recognise Israel as a Jewish state.

This Update is devoted to various recently published articles on aspects of the problem of international Islamist terrorism.

With it looking more likely that the Annapolis meeting on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process will go ahead on schedule in the last week of November, this Update addresses changing expectations about what the gathering can realistically accomplish.

This Update is devoted to the Iranian nuclear issue, and the debate sparked in recent weeks by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Mohamed elBaradei, who has been making statements opposing both sanctions and force as a response to the Iranian nuclear stand-off, saying there is no evidence Iran is planning to make weapons, and anyway, it would take them three to eight years.

As readers are probably aware, Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf on the weekend promulgated a State of Emergency, and began a series of moves to control and muzzle the judiciary, political opponents, and the media in Pakistan.

This Update focuses again on the meeting on Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking planned for Annapolis sometime soon.

This Update combines comment on Pakistan's problems with respect to terrorism and Islamic extremism, in the wake of the bloody assassination attempt on returning exiled politician Benazir Bhutto, with some other reports on Islamic extremism and terrorism emanating from the Middle East.

Today's Update leads with two pieces dealing with the often destructive Saudi Arabian influence on international terrorism and Iraq, in the wake of the recent US policy decision to provide a large arms deal to Saudi Arabia, and smaller ones to various gulf states.

As widely reported, a major renewal of fighting in Afghanistan is expected shortly. The Taliban, based across the border with Pakistan, are expected to make large scale incursions as soon as the mountain snows allow. This Update leads with two pieces on Pakistan's invidious role in encouraging this problem.

While most of the additional US troops promised as part of the Iraq "surge" announced by US President Bush have yet to arrive, the change in strategy which is also part of the plan has already begun to be implemented over recent weeks.

Despite characterisations of last month's thwarted attempt to blow up ten transatlantic flights as "homegrown," Pakistan, rather than the United Kingdom, has emerged as the epicentre of planning.

Egyptian presidential hopefuls Amr Moussa and Abdel Moneim Abol Fotouh held a televised debate on Thursday, but when it came to Israel, the candidates had little to argue about.

Both pledged to review the 1979 peace treaty Egypt had signed with Israel, while trying to outdo each other's antagonism towards Israel: Abol Fotouh termed Israel an enemy, while Moussa called it an adversary.

The candidate's caustic views were mirrored in a poll released on Tuesday, which revealed growing anti-Israel and anti-Western sentiment in the country. As Egypt continues to develop a new Constitution and readies for presidential elections on May 23 (with a likely runoff on June 16), the debate as well as the poll raise new concerns over Egypt's direction.

Palestinian refugees and the claims made of "right of return" for them have long been a major issue within the debate over a 'just solution' to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The claimed "right of return'" is still seen as a core obstacle to overcome in any future peace negotiations. Yet the refugees question is even more complex. Palestinian refugees actually represent the smaller of the two refugees groups created by the regional conflict between the Arab countries and Israel - the larger group being Jewish refugees from Arab and Muslim countries.

The voices of these Jewish refugees, sadly, have hardly ever been heard or are generally too quickly dismissed. Listening to these voices could potentially shed light and new perspectives not only on the refugees question, but also on the nature and history of the regional context of the conflict. It might even promote reconciliation.

This Update contains two valuable pieces on the candidates for the highly important Egyptian Presidential  election (Barry Rubin had an excellent analysis of just how important here), as well as one of the many interesting pieces being written about the legacy of Benzion Netanyahu, the father of Israeli PM Binyamin Netanyahu, who died last week age 102.

In what was was considered another sign of the rapidly deteriorating ties between Israel and Egypt, a visit to Jerusalem by Egyptian Grand Mufti Ali Gomaa -- accompanying Jordanian officials -- caused outrage in Egypt's new Islamist-dominated Parliament last week. The Parliament demanded Gomaa's resignation for behaviour that risked "normalising" relations with Israel.

Despite Gomaa's statements that the visit was unofficial and that it took place under the supervision of the Jordanian authorities, the visit angered those opposed to normalizing relations with Israel.

Parliament Speaker Saad al-Katatny read out...

A new controversy has broken out regarding women's rights in Egypt. It all started when al- Arabiya reported that the National Council for Women (NCW) appealed to the Egyptian parliament, requesting that two highly controversial laws, both affecting women's status, not be approved. According to the report, the first law would lower the minimum age of marriage to 14; the other would allow a husband to engage in intercourse with his wife's corps a few hours after her death. Al- Arabiya's original report was based on an article by Egyptian columnist Amro Abdul Samea in the Egyptian newspaper al-Ahram, and has since been picked up by many other media outlets. The web went into a frenzy over the shocking possibility that, if the 'farewell intercourse law' were approved, Egyptian men would be granted a legal right to have sex with their dead wives up to 6 hours after their death (not surprisingly, the implication that Egyptian women would be granted the same right in regards to their dead husbands was of little comfort).

Fourteen months after the popular uprising that brought down the Mubarak regime, Egypt is heading toward a head-on collision between the Islamic forces and the secular military apparatus that has ruled Egypt since 1952, when a group of young officers led by Gamal Abdel Nasser revolted against the monarchy and toppled the regime.

Much has been written about a tacit agreement between the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) led by Field Marshal Tantawi and the Muslim Brotherhood.

The so-called "deal" was supposed to divide power between the two protagonists, whereby the Islamists would retain power in the legislative bodies, and the military, through their proxies, would keep control of the executive branch of government - first and foremost the presidency.

A deal signed Tuesday between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas may or may not herald the end to the Gazan fuel shortage as discussed in my previous blog post on the subject, but a recent television interview with Hamas' Minister of the Interior and of National Security Fathi Hammad offers a glimpse into the strain the situation was causing within Hamas...

This Update features two pieces looking at the increasing signs that the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is abandoning past promises of modesty and moderation and attempting to impose near-complete domination over Egyptian politics in the near future.

First up is Eric Trager, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy's expert on Egyptian politics. He notes the Brotherhood's decision to break previous promises and field a presidential candidate, its efforts to dominate both most Parliamentary Committees and the Constituent Committee writing the new constitution, and  scrapping of previous efforts to maintain a detente with the ruling military government constitute overwhelming evidence that the Brotherhood has abandoned any pretence of not seeking a monopoly on political power...

As a step in the transition to democracy in Egypt, a body was formed to draft a new constitution prior to the presidential elections (scheduled to be held in May). This constitution is set to determine major issues such as the role of religion, the balance between the President and the parliament's authority and minority and women's rights.

It was always expected that heated debates would emerge around the content of the constitution. However, according to recent developments, the first political crisis regarding the constitution revolves around the make up of the panel itself, and that debate makes it clear that for all their assertions about having reformed and their expressed desire to govern Egypt in a democratic and pluralistic manner, it appears that the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is determined to use their political clout to Islamise Egypt.

Since the outbreak of the protests in Tahrir Square, which were led by liberal, secular youth and which led to the ouster of Egyptian President Husni Mubarak, a lot of water has flowed through the Nile. An ailing Mubarak is on trial, possibly for his life, and his declaration that only his regime could block the rise of the Islamists turns out to have been keen and precise. Islamist political parties - the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists - won 75% of the vote in free, fair elections, while the liberal secular youth have been sidelined in terms of political influence in Egypt. The army, which has not given up the reins of government for even a moment, has teamed up with the Islamists, makes concessions in every confrontation with "the street", and retreats further and further from what it declared was its first priority: to promulgate a constitution that would ensure basic rights and a stable democracy.

The United Nations' Commission on the Status of Women (CSW) has done it again - in its annual session it condemned only one country - Israel, while ignoring the human rights violations of women around the world, including especially the current crisis in Syria - where women are being raped and murdered...

This Update deals with recent developments in Egypt, and especially the passage of a unanimous resolution by Egypt's Islamist-dominated parliament demanding a severing of all ties with Israel on Monday.

Israeli strategic analyst Jonathan D. Halevi looks at the implications of the resolution in more depth, including all of its provisions -  its statement that Israel will "never" be anything but an enemy, full support for Palestinian "armed resistance" against Israel, demands for a total boycott of Israel and a severing of all ties, an implied demand for an Egyptian nuclear capability and its rejection of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process...

In December, I wrote on AIJAC's "Fresh AIR" blog (available on-line at www.aijac.org.au/news/article/antisemitism-in-the-middle-east-in-1835) about a 19th century book that had been rediscovered which shed a great deal of light on the situation of Jews in the Arab Middle East in the 1830s - before Zionism became an issue, and before there was significant European influence on those societies. I noted that the book in question, An Account of the Manners and Customs of the Modern Egyptians, by Edward William Lane and Edward Stanley Poole, based on numerous visits to Egypt, countered common but erroneous beliefs that the Middle East was largely free from significant antisemitism or large-scale persecution of Jews before these influences.

This Update features two pieces on the crisis between Egypt and the US sparked by the Egyptian government's crackdown on pro-democracy NGOs in the country, and more importantly, what these events say about Egypt's potential for progress toward genuine liberal democracy.

Stephen McInerney, director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, discusses the politics of the NGO case in some depth and makes a strong case that the future of Egyptian civil society may be at stake. He details the clear disingenuousness of the claims against the NGOs, and the way Fayza Abul Naga, minister of planning and international cooperation, is clearly using the case - along with a strategy of brinksmanship - to promote her agenda, with at least the acquiescence of the ruling military council, SCAF...

This Update focuses on the growing prevalence of conspiracy theories that seem to be coming out of countries affected by the Arab Spring, especially Egypt, and the possible consequences.

First up is Washington Institute scholar David Schenker, who looks at the background to the Egyptian decision to prosecute 16 US citizens who lead NGOs in Egypt for accepting foreign funding to promote democracy. This decision risks the loss of $1.3 billion in annual aid from the US which Egypt desperately needs in order to import food for its citizens, but Egyptians overwhelmingly want  this aid to end anyway...

Also today: Egyptian authorities create an anti-American conspiracy while they respect the human rights of terrorists but not refugees.

Also today: a bizarre Egyptian consipracy, some Nazi Marines, terrorist diet tips, and a British MP with questionable ties.

Also today: Obama's pre-Superbowl interview, an imprisoned Iranian dissident and more going wrong with Egypt's "democracy".

Daily summary of news stories that readers may have missed otherwise.

A round-up of news stories that readers may have missed today...

Wednesday was the 33rd anniversary of the return from exile of Iran's then-revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. In celebration, the Iranian regime chose to stage a reenactment of the triumphant moment, with the Iranian airforce marching a larger than life cutout of the Ayatollah off an airplane in an elaborate parade.

Photographs of the event were made available on the semi-official Mehr news agency and have since created an Iranian viral sensation. David Goodman has reported the response...

When the third and final round of Egypt's parliamentary elections concluded on January 11, the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) cemented its dominance of the next legislature. Although the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces still holds executive power, the FJP's political victory promises radical changes for Egypt, including a theocratic domestic program and a confrontational foreign policy. Western states should have no illusions about the party's aims or ability to moderate.

The New York Times' Lede blog is commemorating the one year anniversary of the beginning of the Egyptian revolution through a post containing reflections by an Egyptian activist, interspersed with footage he took from the protests in Cairo on 25 January last year. The piece is quite moving and manages to recapture the sense of optimism and determination that was being felt at the time:

Although the battles would continue later that evening and over the following days, we all knew that something profound had just happened. There was a raised collective consciousness amongst us...

How different to the feeling now?...

This update looks at the latest sanctions imposed by the US and European Union on Iran’s oil industry and Central Bank; how an Islamist-controlled Egyptian Parliament will affect the country's ties with Israel; and the chances of Hamas winning Palestinian elections mooted to be held in May.

This Updates leads with two articles on the likely policies of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood now that it has won the parliamentary election, gaining approximately 41% of seats with other Islamist groups taking the Islamist bloc up to something like 2/3 of all seats.

First up is Washington Institute expert on Egyptian politics Eric Trager, looking at the likely agenda of the Brotherhood in power. He says that the agenda will be theocracy internally, and confrontation internationally, and that expectations that the group will moderate are very unlikely to be met - offering some behavioural evidence for this.

Today's Update features two pieces on the situation in Syria, where 20 civilians were reportedly killed yesterday, bringing the death toll close to 6,000 according to rebel leaders, despite the presence of a team of Arab League observers in the country.

First up is David Kenner of Foreign Policy, detailing the fact that the head of the Arab League observers mission, Sudanese Gen. Mohammad Ahmed Mustafa al-Dabi, is himself alleged to have been involved in genocide in Darfur. The allegations are that General al-Dabi was responsible for creating the Arab "Janjaweed" militias responsible for most of the massacres there. Kenner makes it clear that given this and other problems with the Arab League mission, which he discusses, "Syrians are still very much alone."

Will the Arab revolutions bring freedom for women? So far the signs are bad.

Many women in post-revolution Egypt, Libya and Tunisia are concerned. During the Arab Spring they played a key part in the protests by taking to the streets, marching and protesting alongside men. As the old order fell, hopes for new-found freedoms and political liberties surged, and women's rights were no exception. Yet some of the new regimes have been quick to reinforce laws and norms limiting these rights, justifying it as a return to values undermined by previous regimes...

In the editorial in the current January edition of the Australia/Israel Review, Colin Rubenstein takes on the false belief that antisemitism in the Middle East comes almost solely from the conflict with Israel and will disappear if there is an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal

In the course of the editorial, Colin noted:

It is true that, in medieval times, Jews in Muslim societies tended on the whole to be better off than in Christian Europe, but this is hardly to suggest that their human rights were fully respected.

Now, some material has come to light which illustrates this point brilliantly.

The US Ambassador to Belgium, Howard Gutman, addressing a conference on antisemitism on November 30, controversially insisted that Muslim "hatred and indeed sometimes... violence directed at Jews generally [is] a result of the continuing tensions between Israel and the Palestinian territories" and should therefore not be seen as the same thing as "real" antisemitism. He went on to insist that a Mideast peace deal would see a "huge reduction of this form of labeled ‘antisemitism'."

When the Egyptian revolution came, we stayed home. We are young, liberal Egyptian activists who have dedicated our lives to bettering our country. But from the moment in January the crowds took over Tahrir Square calling for President Hosni Mubarak's ouster, we urged observers, particularly Western idealists already hailing the triumph of the new Egypt, to be cautious. We reminded them of Edmund Burke's truism: Bringing down a tyrant is far, far easier than forming a free government.

The real surprise is the emergence of the Salafist al-Nour party, a deeply theocratic organisation that bases its ideology on a literal reading of the Koran and Sunna and, most astoundingly, didn't exist until a few months ago. Although Salafist political activity was, unlike the Brotherhood, completely banned under the Mubarak regime, al-Nour is giving the Brotherhood a run for its money in some districts.

This Update features two pieces on one of the unpleasant surprises to come out of the first round of the Egyptian elections last week, the unexpectedly strong showing of the hyper-Islamist Al-Nour Salafist parties, who got 24.4% of the vote, second behind the also Islamist Muslim Brotherhood with 36%. Both reports are from analysts currently on the ground in Cairo.

Washington Institute scholar Eric Trager describes his own encounters with Salafist candidates and activists, as well as locals who support them. He finds them viewed by locals as honest, even saintly, despite the fact that they seem to have considerable inexplicable money for their campaign and it is unclear where this came from.

In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, expressions of explicit anti-Semitism and anti-Jewish sentiments are beginning to surge. In Middle East politics, it has long beem traditional to point a finger at Israel, "the Zionists" and "the Jews", who were blamed for all the problems of the Muslim and Arab worlds. "The Jews" were used by the regimes as a convenient distraction from their own peoples' misery and hardship, and its causes. Many had hoped that the Arab spring indicated a turn for the better and an end to this racist and counter-productive tradition, since intitially, Israel was hardly even mentioned as a cause for the fate of Arab societies. For once, the finger of blame was rightly being pointing at their own dictatorial regimes. Sadly, as prominent American journalist Jeffrey Goldberg has noted,

Now in Cairo, and across the Arab Middle East, Israel and the Jews are serving once again as universal boogeymen. Once dictators used anti-Semitism to divert their citizens' attention away from their own problems. Now expressions of the most ridiculous conspiracy theories seem to rise up organically.

This truth doesn't conform to the generally accepted narrative of the Arab Spring, but ignoring it won't make it disappear.

As readers are probably aware, in the first round of voting in Egypt earlier this week, the Muslim Brotherhood did even better than many polls had predicted, as did the even more extreme Salafists. This Update is devoted to analysis of this outcome.

First up is Israeli academic Barry Rubin, who says that he was criticised for being too pessimistic in projecting an Islamist win in Egypt - but the results from the first round are worse than anything he predicted. He points out that the "Facebook" liberals that started the revolution got barely 5% of the vote, and that things may well get even more extreme with the next round of voting...

Ilan Grapel, a twenty seven year old American-Israeli was finally released on October 27 in exchange for 25 Egyptian prisoners in Israel, after having spent four months in an Egyptian jail due to false allegations of espionage. In 2009, he was a Goldmann Fellow at AIJAC's Melbourne office.

A month after his release, Grapel has told his story in an interview with Yedioth Ahronoth. Grapel describes how he spent 150 days in a four-by-four metre room, two weeks of which he spent in complete confinement that made him "nearly lose his mind".

In the lead up to Egypt's first ‘free and fair' election, the streets of Cairo have become increasingly chaotic.

On November 25, tens of thousands of people protested in Tahrir Square demanding an end to the military rule of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which has ruled Egypt since former president Hosni Mubarak lost power in February. More than a week of civil unrest and government crackdowns left 42 people dead and 3000 injured.

There are not only tensions between political parties in Egypt but also a resentment of ‘foreigners' - seen in conspiracy theories of ‘foreign meddling' in Egyptian politics, and also in recent attacks on foreign journalists including sexual assaults.

As the AP reported on Sunday, the final results of the recent Moroccan elections confirm a victory, if not a majority, for Morocco's Islamist party. These elections form a part of the series of reforms implemented by the Moroccan King in order to quell the country's brief spell of Arab Spring-style protests.

Announcing final results Sunday, the ministry said the Justice and Development Party has taken 107 seats in the 395-seat legislature following the nationwide vote two days earlier.

The PJD - known by its French initials - is the latest Islamist party to win an election brought about by the Arab Spring. The right-of-center Istiqlal, a potential ally for the PJD, placed second with 60 seats.

Morocco may be the most recent country to have ostensibly voted an Islamist party into power, but it will not be the last...

Rioting in Tunisia and Egypt in early 2011 unleashed a tidal wave of unrest across the Arab world that was soon designated the "Arab Spring." Enthusiasts in the West hailed a new birth of freedom for a giant slice of humanity that has been living in despotic darkness for centuries. But historians in 50 or a hundred years may well point to the 1979 events in Teheran - the Islamist revolution that toppled the Shah - as the real trigger of this so-called "spring" (which is looking more and more like a deep, forbidding winter). And the Islamist Hamas victory in the Palestinian general elections of 2006 and that organisation's armed takeover of the Gaza Strip the following year probably signified further milestones on the same path.

Only days before parliamentary elections, Egypt was in a huge crisis whose outcome will determine the future of almost 80 million people and perhaps the Arabic-speaking world's fate for decades to come.

Will the army go ahead with elections that will be won by the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical Salafist groups, thus producing an Islamist regime?

Or will it cancel elections, declare martial law in some form, and set off a passionate civil conflict?

Or will it find some compromise that quiets the disorder but doesn't solve the problems?

Historically, following many of the revolutions in the Arab and Muslim world, previous traditions hindering women's rights and limiting their role in politics and society have been reinstated.

The deterioration in women's rights after the revolution in Algeria ended in 1962, and the Iranian Islamic revolution of 1979 created frightening precedents for many women.

Is this recurring in the recent "Arab Spring" revolutions in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt? Women have played a key part in these revolutions, yet some of the new regimes have been quick to reinforce laws and norms that limit women's rights, justifying it as a return to values undermined or damaged by the previous regime.

The Sinai is not only a haven for terrorists, but it also a centre of people and organ smuggling.

The depth of the lawlessness was recently captured in CNN documentary "Death in the Desert", which reported on unimaginable violence experienced by Africans who cross the Sinai in the desperate attempt to make it to Israel.

Africans particularly from Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea fleeing their local hardships pay Bedouin tribes in the border area between Sudan and Egypt around $2,000 to be smuggled into Israel. But these smugglers often imprison and blackmail the helpless refugees or sell them to other Sinai Bedouin, who do the same, rather than fulfilling the deal.  If the Africans cannot pay the ransom, and sometimes even if they do pay, they are enslaved, raped, tortured and killed.

This Update provides analysis of the increasingly "Arab Spring" instability which seems to be developing across the Middle East - in Egypt, Syria and Jordan.

First up are Washington Institute experts David Schenker and Eric Trager on the background and implications to the re-ignition of significant violence between Egypt's military SCAF goverment, and protestors gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square over the weekend - which has led to the death of upwards of 24 people and hundreds of injuries.

The Australia/Israel and Jewish Affairs Council has welcomed the release yesterday by Egypt of Ilan Grapel, who served as a visiting research fellow in its Melbourne office in 2009.

A law student at Emory University in Atlanta, USA, Mr. Grapel travelled to Egypt early this year to volunteer for a charity helping develop civil society there before being arrested in early June amidst allegations he was an Israeli agent. He was held for more than four months without any charges being formally laid against him...

As readers will note from the accompanying media release, AIJAC is very relieved and pleased that Ilan Grapel, a bright young Israeli-American student, has now been released after more than four months of detention in Egypt. Ilan served a 2009 stint in AIJAC's Melbourne's office as a visiting Goldman Fellow, part of a program run by our American partner, the American Jewish Committee...

In honour of the occasion of his release, it seems worth recalling some of the work Ilan did for AIJAC back in 2009...

Meanwhile, there has been some interesting discussion internationally about the motivations for Grapel's arrest and detention by Egypt's interim government, and what it says about where Egypt is going...

Many reactions in the Palestinian street and media to the release of prisoners in exchange for the release of abducted Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit reveal a worrying and disturbing narrative of glorification of the returning terrorists and support for their heinous crimes and violent ways. Calls for future abductions of Israeli soldiers as bargaining chips for future prisoner releases were also common.

It would appear that there is no room for Jews in the Arab Spring.

Last year, before the Arab Spring, veteran White House correspondent Helen Thomas caused outrage when she recommended that Israeli Jews should "get the hell out of Palestine" and "go back home to Poland, Germany, America and everywhere else."

As an American of Lebanese descent, the 89-year-old Thomas should have known that the Arab Middle East was home to approximately 850,000 Jews known as Mizrahi (Eastern) Jews for thousands of years.

It won't stop the revisionist propaganda underpinning the Palestinian unilateral declaration of independence campaign, but newspaper accounts from 1949 prove that the nascent State of Israel supported the establishment of a Palestinian state on the West Bank and Gaza and opposed the land being absorbed by surrounding Arab countries.

Violent clashes between Coptic Christians and Egyptian Security forces on Sunday have killed at least 26 people mostly Christian and injured over 300 people. The clashes mark the worst violence in Egypt since the fall of Hosni Mubarak.

It started when thousands of Copts protested outside a state television station over the September 30 burning of a church in Aswan and demanded that the military sack the governor of Aswan, who had backed the burning and blamed the Copts for provoking it. It was also a protest against the role of state media inciting violence against Coptic Christians. When clashes broke out between protestors and security forces, some Muslims tried to support the Copts and joined in the call for resignation of the military council's chairman, Field Marshal Mohammed Tantawi. However, security forces were later joined by Muslim groups who attacked the Copts. According to the Associated Press, state television called on viewers to rush to the army's rescue, "casting the Christians as a mob seeking to undermine unity between the people and the military".

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It has become increasingly clear that, sadly, the Arab upheavals that swept the Middle East this year are not resulting in a democratic "Arab Spring". Rather an "Islamist awakening" seems to be occurring alongside a resurgence of extreme Arab nationalism.

The middle class crowds demanding "freedom" and "democracy" seem to have lost the battle for the streets in Cairo and elsewhere. The old demons of violent, conspiratorial anti-Americanism and antisemitism, which seemed so blessedly absent in the initial demonstrations, are back with a vengeance.

The year was 1958 and Israel had noticed that Egyptian leader Gamal Abdul Nasser's agitation across the Middle East was disagreeable to many of his non-Arab neighbours. Israel therefore emerged with what came to be known as the "Periphery Strategy", which focused on Ethiopia, Iran and Turkey and even wooed Lebanon's and Sudan's Christian minorities, Iraq's Kurds, and Morocco's Berbers.

The diplomatic documents had barely stopped drifting down from the Israeli Embassy in Egypt when New York Times columnist Nick Kristof referenced the root causes of the attack, as he saw them: "Attacking the Israeli embassy doesn't help Gazans, doesn't bring back the dead," he tweeted. "Instead it helps Israeli hardliners." It was the standard response of an armchair analyst, for whom all Middle Eastern current events - and particularly the most outrageous ones - are inextricably linked to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

There is no question that Israel's strategic environment at the moment is looking grimmer than it has in a while. Its long-standing good relations, at times something close to an alliance, with Turkey appear to be history. Meanwhile, following the Cairo embassy attack last Friday, it became clearer than ever that the cold peace that has prevailed between Israel and Egypt for more than 30 years - a core component of Israel's security planning - is at serious risk...

There is a tendency to assume among many editorialists and pundits that this deterioration must have occurred because Israel has supposedly been intransigent, particularly in terms of offering insufficient concessions to the Palestinians.

Noted American journalist Jeffrey Goldberg has pointed out that this automatic, conventional analysis actually has it backwards.

As readers are probably aware, there was a serious attack on Israel's embassy in Cairo on Friday by an Egyptian mob, which saw the Embassy ransacked, several staff members trapped inside for hours before they were rescued and, eventually, all staff evacuated from the country except for the Deputy Ambassador. (Blogger "Elder of Ziyon" collected some very salient on the spot reporting about what actually happened at the embassy - including how Egyptian authorities refused to stop the crowd's attack, while protecting the Saudi Embassy on the next block, and how both the mob and soldiers reportedly targeted journalists for violent attack.) Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's statement on the attack is here.

This Update looks at the wider implications of the attack for both Israeli-Egyptian relations and the outcome of the Egyptian revolution.

Rockets continue to be fired at Israel from Gaza, despite yet another ceasefire being called...

AIJAC recommends a new twitter feed - QassamCount - which provides realtime info on all of the rocket attacks, including where they hit and any damage done.

Most commentators seem to think that Gaza's Hamas rulers want a ceasefire and they certainly keep calling them... So why do rockets keep falling?

Israel's respected Middle East Analyst Ehud Yaari speaks to Rabbi Abraham Cooper of the Simon Weisenthal Centre on the main reason behind Iran's Gaza Missile Gambit; Why Hezbollah is quiet (so far); Post-Tahrir Sq trouble in Cairo, as over 100 groups urge government to sever ties with Israel; Iron Dome's surprising and promising results...

Following the recent outbreak of terror attacks on the porous border between Egypt, Israel and Gaza, debate in Israel has been focussed on how best to prevent this violence from reoccurring. Egypt has been engaged in similar considerations, deploying 1,500 troops in the Sinai yesterday, supposedly to prevent a terror attack by Islamic Jihad that intelligence had warned of. Furthermore, according to MEMRI, reports surfaced last night that the Egyptian Government was considering implementing a buffer zone along the border with Gaza in a bid to crack down on the weapons smuggling that has become rife over the last few months; although these reports were swiftly denied. The Economist gave a good summary this week of the position that Israel finds itself in:

Israel faces a dilemma with far-reaching strategic consequences. Thirty years of peace with Egypt have rested, above all, on a demilitarised Sinai. The peninsula is patrolled by an international force and monitored by America from the air, to ensure that both sides keep their armies out, even though Sinai is sovereign Egyptian soil. Until now, Israel had said no to Egyptian demands to let more troops on to the peninsula...

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With the departure of the Mubarak dictatorship, one thing it would be nice to hope for would be a freer and more responsible and professional press in Egypt. Traditionally, the Egyptian press has been government controlled, and used to both bolster the regime and spread anti-Israel hatred together with, very frequently, conspiracy theories. But achieving anything resembling genuine democracy in Egypt is going to require media independence and a freer, more responsible press.

Early signs are not promising. For instance, following the cross-border terrorist incident near Eilat on August 18, in which five Egyptian security officers were killed allegedly by Israeli fire, it is perhaps not surprising, that the Egyptian media played up the story, and especially the Egyptian deaths allegedly at Israel's hand, big-time. After all, they do need to sell papers and/or attract viewers.

According to a potentially very significant news story, Hamas and its long-time key patron, Iran, have had a falling out over the unrest in Syria...

While it is much too early to predict that the Hamas-Iran split will be permanent, if this did happen, it would be a major re-alignment of the Middle Eastern map, with important implications...

As readers are doubtless aware, Libyan rebels are in the capital, Tripoli, and the fall of the Gaddafi regime now looks imminent. This Update features an article and some good links on the complex question of what might happen next. It also features some material on the ongoing tense situation on Israel's southern border where rockets continue to be fired into Israel from Gaza despite a supposed new ceasefire (see also here and here) and Egypt and Israel have had a public spat over the cross-border raid on Thursday which killed 8 Israelis, but which also apparently resulted in the death of three Egyptian security officers, possibly from Israeli fire.

AIJAC guest and Middle East expert Dr. Daniel Pipes appeared on ABC TV Lateline discussing Egypt, Syria and Libya, and was also interviewed by Brisbane Radio 4BC's Gary Hardgrave.

Dr. Pipes says the transition in Egypt, the current violence in Israel and the fates of Syria and Libya all have uncertain and potentially bad outcomes.

As readers are probably aware, there was a major terror attack in southern Israel yesterday, the most serious in a number of years, in which 8 Israelis were killed by a group of terrorists who apparently crossed from Gaza into Sinai, and then into Israel (a useful timeline on the attack is here). Israel responded with airstrikes in Gaza that reportedly killed the leader of the group believed responsible, together with five other terrorists.

The attack raises questions about diminished Egyptian control of Sinai, as well as the growth of extreme Salafist Islamist groups in both the Sinai and Gaza. As Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak stated: " The incident reflects the weakness of Egypt’s hold over Sinai and the spread of terrorist elements."

Following on from this post concerning the growing lawlessness in the Sinai, Haaretz has reported today that Egypian authorities have now taken action to prevent the situation from deteriorating further.

Egyptian security forces, pushing ahead with a crackdown on armed groups in lawless northern Sinai, on Tuesday seized four armed militants as they prepared to blow up a gas pipeline in the city of el-Arish, security sources said...

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An Egyptian religious TV channel has broadcast a mock trial of former leader Hosni Mubarak, who appears as a puppet, and is accused by child prosecutors, of being, essentially, a puppet of Israel.

The clip on al Hekma TV, includes a number of anti-Israel slurs that feed into the recurring motif of Israel and Jews as spoilers and poisoners of Egyptian society.

In Egypt, it is being reported that 14 political groups opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist parties there have united to form a new bloc - called the "The Egyptian Bloc" - to compete in the upcoming parliamentary elections...

This seems to be good news - a sign that the liberal forces which sparked the Egyptian revolution, and have not only looked unprepared for the elections, but been largely driven from the streets in recent weeks, are perhaps starting to get their act together.

However, academic Barry Rubin warns that there are reasons not to get too excited about this news...

This blog has been following events in Egypt over the past few weeks, as the Islamist groups seem to have been becoming far more assertive, resulting in increased weapons smuggling to Hamas in Gaza and, potentially, a cosier relationship between Egypt and Iran.

The Sinai Peninsula, inhabited mostly by various Bedouin tribes, sits between the Egyptian heartland and the Israeli border, and has long been an area which the central Egyptian government has struggled to fully control. Smuggling from Sinai into Gaza has been a constant source of Israeli-Egyptian disagreement over recent years, with Israel urging Egypt to make greater efforts to prevent this, and Egyptian efforts in this regard fluctuating.

Unfortunately, as Alex Joffe has observed in Jewish Ideas Daily, recent events in Sinai following the Egyptian  have been far from encouraging...

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The trial of former Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, which began last week, is certainly attracting a great deal of attention in Egypt. And it is a dramatic event - a symbol of the success of the Egyptian people in toppling a seemingly entrenched autocrat who had been in power for almost 35 years, and their desire to escape from the corruption and lack of freedom which characterised his rule. And yet a number of pieces have appeared arguing that the trial, the attention it is receiving, the way it is conducted, the outcome, and the reception in the streets may have potentially ominous consequences for the future of the Egyptian revolution.

While most eyes have been directed at the public spectacle of the trial of former dictator Hosni Mubarak, a less visible but far more important trial has been facing Egypt as a whole. As Sharyn outlined on Wednesday, the increasing show of strength by Islamist forces in Egypt has dramatically altered the fabric of Egypt's revolution.

The watershed moment came last Friday, when Islamist groups flooded Tahrir square - which had been occupied for months by liberal activists attempting to pressure the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) - in order to reclaim the revolution from the "infidel liberals". The square was promptly emptied by the armed forces, leaving the heart of Egypt's revolution lying empty and posing numerous questions about the future.

The Brookings Institute's Khaled Elgindy has written a detailed outline of the broad political landscape currently displayed in post-revolutionary Egypt...

This Update features material explaining the Tent protest movement which continues to dominant the news inside Israel. It also offers an inside view from Cairo on the precarious state of the Egyptian revolution.

We lead with a useful BICOM (Britain-Israel Communications and Research Centre) backgrounder on the tent protests. It offers some detailed explanation of the make-up and goals of the movement - which began over housing but has now increased its demands to incorporate many other social issues - as well as its implications for the Netanyahu Government. It explains that the timing of the movement, which follows on from some previous public campaigns, but is also facilitated by summer vacation and pleasant weather, and relative quiet on the security front.

Recent events and polling in Egypt indicate that pro-democracy activists are weakening, and that Egypt may be heading down an Islamist path.

New polls not only suggest that the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood is likely to win the November election, but also that Amr Moussa, known for his criticism of Israel will be elected President. The polls also reveal that a majority of respondents want to amend or revoke the peace agreement with Israel.

Another worrying trend is the rise of the Islamic Sulafi movement - which calls for Egypt to become an Islamic state under Sharia law. Their force in Egyptian politics was recently on display on Friday July 29, when over 100,000 protestors demonstrated in Tahrir Square calling for an Islamic state.

The acclaimed "Arab Spring" has given way to a murky summer, dominated by uncertainty, fog and danger as much as democratic hopes, according to academic experts. Some of the movements for reform which blossomed across the region earlier this year may take a long time to mature into democratic regimes resembling those in Eastern Europe which emerged after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Others may simply wilt and decay.

As translated by Iranian defector Reza Kahlili, Iranian Brigadier General Mohammad-Reza Naghdi responded to the recent assassination of an Iranian scientist, shot by an unidentified man on a motorcycle, by saying:

The main plot for this criminal act was conceived by the American government, and since it is scared of the reaction by the Muslim world due to the uprisings in the region, it had the Zionist regime commit the heinous act... In order to protect the security of our country, we have no option but to have the Zionist regime wiped off the map...

The fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in February led to a sharp increase in weapons smuggling to the Gaza Strip and continues today, according to a recent piece by Israeli security correspondent Ron Ben-Yishai. In the past six months alone, Bedouin smugglers have transferred three times the quantity of industrial explosives to Gaza as they did in all of 2010, as Gaza's terrorist organisations roughly doubled their number of rockets to an estimate 10,000, an amount equivalent to Hezbollah's arsenal at the start of the 2006 War.

Lawlessness in North Africa appears to have opened up a new route for weapons smuggling into Gaza. Reuters has reported Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon explaining that weapons are now being smuggled from Libya through Egypt and into the Palestinian enclave.

"Weapons are available in Libya as a result of the unstable situation there, and Hamas has exploited it to buy weapons from Libyan smugglers," Yaalon told foreign journalists in a briefing, without elaborating on the kind of munitions involved.

The prospect of more weapons being funneled to Hamas is rather grim for Israel, suggesting that the conflict will never end...

What do Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan and Egypt have in common?

In the past week, all four countries have been abuzz with conspiratorial news stories suggesting that Israel has been maliciously meddling in their internal affairs.

Following renewed unrest and a large public outcry against what is perceived as reluctance to dismantle the old regime, the Egyptian interim government is set to announce a major reshuffling of its cabinet today, with several senior ministers - including the Finance Minster and the Foreign Minister - resigning over the weekend. This comes shortly after the Government backed-down from an attempt to postpone elections. As The Washington Post's Ernesto Londono reports:

The expected exit of more than half of the Egyptian cabinet's members comes amid complaints that the interim military rulers have been slow to enact meaningful reforms. Activists say that the generals have failed to dismantle the power structure that remained largely intact when President Hosni Mubarak was ousted in February...

AIJAC's latest email Update looks at US foreign policy positions in the Middle East that many analysts describe as alarmingly passive and which will effectively deliver the region into the anti-Western clutches of Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

The prolific and insightful Dr Barry Rubin has written today on the Elephant in the Egyptian Parliament: namely, the overwhelming complicity that Egyptians seem to show towards Islamists and the worrying influence that extreme groups seem to be gaining.

Think about it. There is a powerful Muslim Brotherhood, openly seeking state power and Egypt's fundamental transformation into an Islamist state. Then there are the Salafists-a new label applied to even more radical Islamist groups-that were in the past simply called by the name of the individual organization...

Being the country with the world's largest Muslim population, Indonesia's success in transitioning from a dictatorship to a relatively functional democracy over a short period of time arguably makes it the perfect example for the nations in the Middle East now attempting a similar feat. Giora Eliraz, author of Islam in Indonesia: Modernism, Radicalism and the Middle East Dimension certainly thinks so - observing that despite a traditional Arab disdain for South-East Asian Muslims, Egypt has been clandestinely working with the Indonesian authorities on developing a democratic model.

As he points out, Indonesia is perhaps a better partner in democracy building than the more obvious choice, Turkey, as the latter is...

In an unprecedented interview that would not have been possible until very recently, MSNBC's Richard Engel has spoken to Aboud al-Zomor, a man who has been locked away tightly in the depths of Egypt's penal system since he was convicted of orchestrating the assassination of then Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. Zomor was one of the founders of Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ), a militant offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. His number two and successor was Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Egyptian doctor who later brought EIJ under the umbrella of al-Qaeda and has recently gone on to replace bin Laden...

Today's Update looks at the worrying phenomenon of European efforts and involvement in a range of anti-Israel activities and movements, including the second Gaza flotilla. First up, University of Paris Professor Guy Milliere writes on the efforts of Britain and European countries and citizenry to support boycotts of Israel, fund NGOs that work to delegitimise Israel, and are encouraging the Palestinian push to have the United Nations Security Council recognise a State of Palestine on 1967 borders. Milliere argues that Israel's positive story clashes with the resentment filled British/European psyche that has become warped by moral relativism.

US Secretary of State announced last night that her administration plans to form some limited contact with the previously shunned Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. This report comes just two weeks after the Brotherhood became a legal party in Egypt - for the first time in 80 years. Reuters quoted Clinton explaining her rationale for this decision:

"We believe, given the changing political landscape in Egypt, that it is in the interests of the United States to engage with all parties that are...

This Update leads with a long but important feature on how Islamist forces are increasingly dominating politically in Egypt, and especially how they are persecuting and overawing the country's large Coptic Christian minority. The piece by Yamin el-Rashidi, published in the New York Review of Books, takes us inside the Coptic community and lets the reader perceive events in Egypt, including the apparent collaboration of the country's military rulers in the persecution, as they see it. The piece also examines the strong belief by the Muslim Brotherhood and other "Salafis", supported by other observers, that they will dominate the country after the coming election.

A new study has indicated that two-thirds of all Egyptians support maintaining the Arab republic's 1979 peace agreement with Israel.

The poll, conducted by the Egyptian government's Information and Decision Support Centre (IDSC), showed that 67% of those responding want to uphold the historic Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty signed between Anwar Sadat and Menacham Begin. Of the 1,062 respondents, only 11% want the deal entirely scrapped, 2% want some clauses removed, and 20% declined to respond. Among those surveyed, 56% said they were satisfied with the country's current situation, and 87% plan to vote in the upcoming presidential election.

In post-revolutionary Egypt, Coptic Christians have been increasingly attacked in aseries of bloody clashes. In March, armed thugs bulldozed a church allegedly over an illicit relationship between a Coptic man and a Muslim woman. This led to riots and clashes that left thirteen people dead and 140 wounded. No arrests were made and no one was charged.

Egypt's Christian minority community accounts for some 10 percent of the country's 82 million people and they fear further incidents of violence and persecution.

A new report by the Institute for Monitoring Peace and Cultural Tolerance in School Education (IMPACT-SE), suggests that the attacks against Egyptian Coptic Christians are largely fuelled by the Egyptian school curricula, which is laden with anti-Semitic and anti-Christian sentiment. IMPACT-SE is calling for Egypt to reform its curricula in order to comply with UNESCO standards.

Egypt’s interim Prime Minister Essam Sharaf is now reportedly denying media reports, noted previously on Fresh AIR, that he supports postponing parliamentary elections scheduled for September until after a new constitution is drawn up, a process only scheduled to commence in September.  

Today's Update features two pieces looking inside the increasingly important Syrian popular rebellion, now almost three months old. It also contains an interesting new look at recent developments in Egyptian politics in the run-up to the September elections.

The lead item is a fascinating account from inside Syria from unidentified journalists affiliated with the top German magazine, Der Spiegel. They find a country which "has disintegrated into a surreal patchwork of places where it is tense but quiet, and combat zones in which the regime's most loyal units are killing people indiscriminately." They tell many terrible stories of murder by forces of a regime whose policy is simply to "kill and hope" they can hold on to power, and speak to many ordinary Syrians, who seem overwhelmingly determined that it will not.

On 22 June, Federal MP Jamie Briggs (Mayo, Lib.) made a speech in the House of Representatives drawing the Parliament's attention to the arrest in Egypt of American-Israeli Ilan Grapel. Mr. Grapel was arrested earlier this month for alleged involvement in espionage and formenting sectarian strife in Egypt. As Mr Briggs rightly points out: "These allegations at best seem far-fetched and when you consider that Mr Grapel is a regular visitor to the Middle East and had entered Egypt under his own name on his own passport [and] was posting daily messages on Facebook, the allegations do raise significant concern."

Mr Briggs also commented: "This is similar, sadly, to the five year anniversary of the detention of Israeli citizen Gilad Shalit, who has been held by Hamas since 2006."

The Egyptian Prime Minister, Essam Sharaf, reportedly hinted strongly yesterday that the parliamentary elections scheduled for September might be postponed until after a new constitution is drawn up, a process also supposed to begin in September. Such a postponement might well be the best news about Egypt's democratic prospects to have appeared in a while.

As readers are probably aware, Hamas and Fatah signed a unity deal on Wednesday, following up on their announcement of the deal last week. This Update contains two pieces on the details and implications of that agreement.

First up is Washington Institute scholar David Makovsky who looks at the deal, the background that brought it about, and its implications for security and governance for both the Palestinians and Israel. He also examines the considerable challenges the deal will pose for US Middle East policy, including in terms of the considerable aid Washington provides to the PA at the moment. He is particularly good on the challenges that the pact will face from Israeli opposition, the loss of the internationally highly-regarded Palestinian PM Salam Fayad, and the potential loss of security support from Israel and the US.

This Update concentrates on both the increasingly widespread protests in Syria, and the state of the political transition in Egypt, looking especially at the role of the Muslim Brotherhood there.

First up is a BICOM (British-Israel Communications and Research Centre) briefing on the state of the significant unrest in Syria. The paper reviews the conditions in Syria and predicts that a protracted period of strife looks likely. It goes on to examine the possible implications of the unrest, as well as any regime change, for both Israel and any peace prospects.

Thousands of Egyptian women decided to again march to Tahrir Square and demand their rights. They sought not to make the regime crumble, but to mark the 100th International Women's Day on March 8. These protesters were met not by armed police, but by a larger group of men who proceeded to harass and grope the women

Lewis regards a dash toward Western-style elections, far from representing a solution to the region's difficulties, as constituting "a dangerous aggravation" of the problem, and fears that radical Islamic movements would be best placed to exploit so misguided a move.

The old order has crumbled in the Middle East, and it will never be the same again. But what made it crumble? The experts who had been arguing that the youth in the region constituted a listless generation that did not care about freedom and democracy have been proved wrong.

America was correct to support Egypt when it came knocking, even if the latter was a dictatorship. If America said no, Egypt might have continued its bellicosity and, like Syria, eventually turned to Iran.

The great surprise is not that millions took to the streets in Egypt, but rather that the United States had for so long predicated its regional security on Mubarak.

So why is it some countries that ousted their dictators became full-fledged democracies, while others did not? In examining cases from around the world, three factors in particular seem to be decisive.

In the long run, the feeling in Jerusalem is that the mayhem across the Middle East will serve Israel's interests. The precedent whereby Arab citizenries demand their leaders deliver jobs, education and personal dignity is priceless.

WITH the fall of Hosni Mubarak and Egypt's supposed transition to democracy, the buzz on everyone's lips has been the role of new media in the mass protests. Commentators around Australia and the globe have been heralding the arrival of technology as a cure for any political ailment.

With the military now in charge in Egypt and promising to submit a revised constitution to a referendum in two months, and then proceed to a general election, the obvious question is; will this lead to something resembling genuine democracy in Egypt?

This Update moves beyond a focus on the immediate drama continuing in Egypt to look at the changing realities across the Middle East. First up, the alway insightful Robert Satloff - head of the Washington Insitute for Near East Policy - offers a set of new ideas for US policy

With the Egyptian situation still both volatile and apparently stale-mated - after a decline in protest numbers, they now appear to be back up again - much continues to be written about what could happen, Western policy and the roots of the current situation.

Egypt has long been the centre of the Arab world. The unrest there could re-draw the map and place all Arab despots at risk. What would replace them is impossible to know. However, at the very least, their fall would grant an immense short-term boost to the forces of Middle East Islamist extremism as represented mainly by Iran and its allies.

With the crisis in Egypt apparently getting more violent and chaotic, this Update contains a number of pieces dealing with what most observers agree is the most worrying possible outcome of the Egyptian crisis, the possible takeover of Egypt by Islamists, especially the Muslim Brotherhood.

With the extensive coverage of the mass unrest in Egypt, and President Mubarak having announced (with a bit of a nudge from Washington) that he will neither be contesting the election in September nor leaving the country, this Update will focus on informed speculation about what might happen next in Egypt.

Today's Update deals with the fallout from the extraordinary three days of protest in Egypt, following the example of Tunisia. It also has some analysis of Hezbollah's apparent success in getting its preferred candidate, businessman Najib Mikati, in position to become Lebanon's next PM.

The WikiLeaks documents call attention to a yawning rift that has opened up between the Arab states adjacent to the Persian Gulf and Iran.

Egypt's presidential election is still a year off. However, by October 2011, ailing President Hosni Mubarak will be 83 and have ruled the Land of the Pharaohs continuously for 30 years. But whether he steps down, tries to hold on for another term, or passes from the scene before a successor is appointed, next year's presidential elections will likely mark the end of an era.

If US President Barack Obama's speech in Cairo on June 4 proves to be an historic event, I will be able to say without doubt where I was when he spoke. It was my privilege to be at a gathering of representatives of many of Sydney's Muslim and Arab communities, diplomats, analysts and journalists.

This Update is devoted to analysing US President Obama's important Cairo University speech - directed at the world's Muslims - and the reactions to it.

Today's Update looks at some regional reactions to Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons - including alleged Israeli attempts to damage Iranian technical efforts, and the efforts by a number of Arab states to acquire their own nuclear options.

Jemaah Islamiah has for more than 15 years fought to transform Indonesia into an Islamist state. In recent years, its terrorist campaign has suffered setbacks. As Jemaah Islamiah regroups, it builds upon the experience of Middle East terrorist groups.

A primary target of the Israeli operation against Hamas in December and January was weapons smuggling tunnels under the border between the Gaza Strip and the Egyptian Sinai. This border zone is known as the Philadelphi corridor.

The most important measure preventing a return of mass violence is stopping Hamas rocket attacks on Israel. Unfortunately, Hamas has shown it cannot be deterred. Thus, it must be forced to stop.

Today's Update focuses on the wider regional factors and implications for the current conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

Today's Update is concerned with the ongoing violence in and around the Gaza Strip. There are ongoing, intensive diplomatic engagements in Egypt, trying to thrash out a ceasefire agreement that would prove lasting.

The UN Security Council has just passed a somewhat ambiguous call for a Gaza ceasefire, which is supposed to be "immediate" and "durable". The Israeli papers largely agree that Israeli forces have now reached a decision point - will they go into Gaza's cities and engage in house to house fighting with Hamas forces or accept the ceasefire and talks proposed by Egypt and France

As readers may be aware, there have been a series of developments related to the Sinai breakout by Hamas-led Gazans a week and a half ago. Egypt sealed the border to further crossings on Sunday, and said no similar breakouts would be tolerated.

This Update focuses on analysis of the political implications of Hamas' breaking down of the border of southern Gaza last Wednesday morning, sending hundreds of thousands of Gazans into Sinai.

The Sharm el-Sheikh Summit on Tuesday, hosted by Egyptian President Mubarak, and including Israeli PM Olmert, PA President Mahmoud Abbas, and Jordan's King Abdullah, is the subject of this Update.

As readers will probably be aware, the difficult and complex situation in Gaza has continued to develop; the Hamas-Fatah fighting has been reduced by the latest ceasefire, but few Palestinians expect it to hold...

The Fatah-Hamas agreement mediated by the Saudis in Mecca in the first week of February revives a long tradition in Palestinian politics of prioritising internal unity over progress toward strategic objectives.

This Update features more analysis of the great divide which is currently affecting the Middle East, pitting an axis dominated by Shiite Iran, together with Syria and actors like Hezbollah and Hamas against the governments of the predominantly Sunni Arab states.

Following up my previous AIJAC blog post regarding former Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar's revelations that the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei told him in 2000 that "Israel must be burned to the ground" and forecasting an Iranian war to achieve this end, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Hassan Firouzabadi has also agreed that Iran's goal is to "annihilate" Israel.

After frequent calls on this blog for some action against Sudanese President Omar Bashir, it is welcome news that the US Congress is committing to halt aid to any country that hosts the indicted war criminal.

A US House of Representatives press release reports that the House Appropriations Committee has adopted an amendment to the State and Foreign Operations Appropriations bill for 2013 to this effect, proposed by Representative Frank Wolf...

Former Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar has revealed that the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei unequivocally expressed to him, personally, his intention to destroy Israel, not politically but militarily and via Iranian military action.

Aznar told a crowd in Jerusalem on May 16: "In a private discussion we held in Tehran in October of 2000, Ali Khamenei told me that Israel must be burned to the ground and made to disappear from the face of the Earth."

The former Spanish Prime Minister also said that Khamenei told him "Iran's war against the United States and Israel is inevitable."

Go figure

An unattributed Age story (12/5) on Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails stated that a "fifth of all Palestinians living under occupation - some 700,00 people - have served time in Israeli jails, according to activist groups."

Although the article did not include the origin of the claim of 700,000, it is a number pushed by the Addameer Prisoner Support and Human Rights Association, a Palestinian NGO, and is not credible.

This Update features three pieces on the nuclear talks with Iran, scheduled to resume next week after a five week hiaitus - two of them focusing on the dangers of any agreement which does not adequately block Iran's ability to quickly build nuclear weapons whenever a decision to do so is reached.

First up is Iran scholar and recent visitor to Australia Emanuele Ottolenghi, who looks at some history related to the Iranian nuclear program to make the case that an agreement that does not take account of Iran's past weaponisation achievements will leave Iran able to build nuclear weapons.

The election of French Socialist party leader Francois Hollande to his country's presidency on Sunday - a victory over Nicolas Sarkozy which had been expected following his strong showing in the first round of voting on April 22 - is certain to impact French foreign policy regarding Iran, as well as Israel.

Sarkozy had been seen as one of Europe's most strident opponents to Iran's nuclear program. According to Hollande's advisers, as well as many analysts, France is unlikely to continue in its role as a spearhead for European action on Iran under its new government.

A number of major news outlets, including ABC news here in Australia, have been reporting on the Yom Ha-atzmaut interview with Israeli Chief of General Staff Benny Gantz that appeared in Ha'aretz this week.

Unfortunately, most of these reports have taken the IDF chief's words out of context and in doing so, changed their meaning as well as their significance.

US President Barack Obama has announced that the US will apply new sanctions to prevent companies from using technology that help repressive regimes in Syria and Iran target dissidents.

The new US sanctions will target Syrian and Iranian government agencies and officials who directed the surveillance operations, as well private companies.

Following a period of increased international sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, the P5+1 nudged Iran back to the negotiating table on April 13. The two-day talks, held in Istanbul, yielded little but an agreement to resume talks in five weeks time, on May 23 in Baghdad.

Whether you agree with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's assessment that Iran had been given a "freebie", or US President Barack Obama's description of the latest talks as an "opportunity for us to negotiate and see if Iran comes to the table in good faith," the fact remains that despite the sanctions and these negotiations, Iran's nuclear enrichment and development continues apace in defiance of the unequivocal Western and UN policy to prevent Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.

The clock is ticking on the Iranian nuclear program. Last December, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta appeared on the CBS news program, "60 Minutes", and declared that Iran could have a bomb within twelve months. He added that the time frame might be shorter if the Iranians have "a hidden facility somewhere in Iran that may be enriching fuel." If Panetta's assessments are correct, then Iran's best diplomatic strategy for 2012 is just to let the clock run out. The West will have to carefully develop a counter-strategy to neutralise Iran's likely course of action.

The Iranian nuclear question, Yom Hashoah and the controversy surrounding a recent poem by Gunter Grass, were the backdrop for a recent long interview Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu gave to the German newspaper Welt am Sontag.

In the interview, published on April 22, Netanyahu explained to the German audience what offended Israel most about Grass' poem "What Must be Said" - which depicted Israel as a potentially genocidal aggressor against Iran. Under questioning, the Prime Minister also defended his positions on the risks of a nuclear-armed Iran.

Later in the interview, he rebuffed claims that the continued existence of West Bank settlements are harming the prospects of peace with the Palestinians...

This Update features some analysis of the aftermath of the meeting between Israeli PM Binyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian negotiators last week, where he was given a letter from Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas. Also included is a long but informative interview in which Netanyahu discusses several recent controversies in a German newspaper.

Yesterday, the Jewish world was commemorating the annual Holocaust Remembrance Day (Yom Ha'Shoah). Iran, however, decided to mark the day a little differently.

The Iranian regime is notorious for its persistent denial of the Holocaust -- for example, a huge controversy erupted in Germany last month when an interview with the Iranian President was aired on public television in which he denied the Holocaust. (For more on Iran's efforts to sponsor Holocaust denial internationally, see...

This Update deals with the "P5+1" talks with Iran that occurred on Saturday - with reports suggesting little diplomatic progress accomplished beyond agreement to another meeting in five weeks in Baghdad. On a separate issue, it also contains a look a the significance of the planned meeting tonight between Israeli PM Netanyahu and Palestinian PM Salam Fayyad to present a letter outlining the Palestinian position.

This Update deals primarily with the apparent failure of the peace plan for Syria negotiated by UN envoy Kofi Annan, which appears to have failed after a promised pullout of  Syrian forces from major towns by Tuesday appears to have largely not occurred (though relative quiet is reportedly currently in place across the country.)

First up is Syrian opposition figure and analyst Radwan Ziadeh who argues it was absurd to have expected Syrian President Assad to have complied with the Annan peace plan given his track record. He points particularly to repeated promises by Assad to both Turkey and the Arab League which were not kept, and seemed to be simply a diversion.

A cold war will quickly turn into a hot one unless drastic action is taken.

As the drumbeat of war mounts in the Middle East, people wonder if an Iran-Israel war is inevitable.

Iran's rhetoric about wiping Israel off the map continues unabated - as does its quest for nuclear weapons. Israel views the combination of Tehran's relentless rhetoric against the Jewish state with a nuclear weapon as an existential threat...

This Update includes three pieces which attempt to clarify the debate, centred on competing leaks from intelligence sources, about what is known about the present and future state of the Iranian nuclear program...

Recently the Australian media has been focused on news that the Australian government blocked the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei from participating in the national broadband network (NBN).

While most commentators are discussing the cyber security concerns, few are raising Huawei's questionable activities in Iran - with reports that Huawei empowered the Iranian regime to track dissidents during the 2009 demonstrations.

AIJAC guest Dr Emanuele Ottolenghi's recent appearances in the Australasian media, including ABC radio, Sky News and lectures at the Lowy Institute, the Australian Institute of International Affairs and the Centre for Independent Studies. (links)

When Israeli jets pounded the Gaza Strip on March 9-12, in the latest round of major fighting around the enclave, they were not fighting Hamas, Israel's traditional bête noire in Gaza. Though radical factions fired more than 300 rockets at Israel, the self-described Islamic Resistance Movement did not claim responsibility for a single attack. It may be the first time the organisation has refused to lead the charge to battle against Israel.

Hamas has a different fight on its hands. Iran, through the use of its proxies, is fomenting instability in Gaza that it is ill-equipped to handle. Indeed, Teheran is punishing Gaza's de facto rulers for leaving their long-standing alliance.

The March 5 summit between US President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu marked an important milestone in the US-Israeli decision-making process on Iran's nuclear program. The meeting helped clarify positions and narrow gaps, yet significant differences remain to be addressed in the coming months.

As has been widely reported in the Australian press today, on Wednesday the Guardian went public with a trove of messages that they had obtained which purportedly had been mined out of Syrian President Bashar Assad's personal email account.

What was less widely reported was that, as a key strategy, in the emails the Iranians told the Alawite Assad to shore up his image among the country's majority Sunni Muslim population by fashioning himself as an uncompromising opponent of concessions to Israel and as a defender of Jerusalem.

The United Nations' Commission on the Status of Women (CSW) has done it again - in its annual session it condemned only one country - Israel, while ignoring the human rights violations of women around the world, including especially the current crisis in Syria - where women are being raped and murdered...

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has recently been the subject of much criticism because of what some see as an unnecessarily militaristic attitude regarding Iran, arguing that his statements indicate a clear gung-ho -- even warmongering -- attitude. The reality may actually be the very opposite.

Israel is believed to have previously taken-out two different nuclear programs: Iraq's in 1981 and Syria's in 2007. I say "believed to have" because Israel has never officially admitted to the second one; indeed, no Israeli public official ever even recognised that Syria had a nuclear program and in neither case was there any prior warning (in fact, prior to the strike on Syria's secret reactor in 2007...

Just days after being exposed for fraudulently blaming the accidental death of a 15-year-old boy on an "Israeli airstrike", Hamas officials have again attempted to implicate Israel in the death of a Gaza youth -- this time, seven-year-old Baraka al-Mughrabi. Just after Mughrabi passed-away last night, reports started emerging that he had been killed by an Israeli strike.

Not long after, however, these remarks were retracted as the truth of his death emerged...

Delhi Police have arrested an Indian journalist, Syed Mohammed Ahmad Kazmi, a Shi'ite with connections to Iran for his alleged role in facilitating the February 13 bombing of an Israeli Embassy car. See previous AIJAC blog post on background on the attack.

Interestingly, reporting on this arrest has featured discussion of a previous alleged plot by Iranian proxies to prepare terror attacks in Australia...

Today's Update contains two pieces focussed around the reality behind claims about "Apartheid" often directed at Israel by radical opponents (they organise something called "Israel Apartheid Week" on some college campuses, including some in Australia, every March. A summary of the various organisations behind it is here.)

Following yesterday's blog post on the outcomes of the Iranian Parliamentary election, there is further speculation that the Iranian government's claim of an election turnout of 65% is not accurate.

Also, check out the "bravest, craziest, most ironic vote in Iran's election" - a young Iranian man who wore a T-shirt that stated "God Bless America" to a polling station.

The Guardian's Patrick Wintour and Julian Borger have reported that British Prime Minister David Cameron has explicitly stated that Iran is intending to develop nuclear weapons. This comes just months after the same newspaper revealed that the British military has begun putting in place preparations for a possible war with Iran. That said, Cameron still backs sanctions and is particularly concerned with China and India.

David Cameron has warned that Iran is seeking to build an "inter-continental nuclear weapon" that threatens the west, as he urged Israel to allow time for sanctions to force the Iranians to change their strategic stance...

Amid Iran's nuclear standoff and reports of its human rights abuses, the Iranian Parliamentary elections on March 2 garnered suprisingly little outside interest.

This was because the whole event was simply a contest amongst various strains of extremists - with reformists largely excluded from taking part, or boycotting. It was essentially a battle between supporters of Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The election results are in and it seems Ahmadinejad lost the battle and now may be reduced to being a ‘lame duck' President.

This blog post looks at the implications of the election.

The past few days saw an intense period of discussion about the Iranian nuclear crisis in Washington involving both US President Obama, and visiting Israeli PM Binyamin Netanyahu. The three focal points of analysis were Obama's Speech to the America-Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) on Sunday (video here), the subsequent meeting between the two leaders on Monday and their public statement following the meeting, and Netanyahu's Speech to AIPAC on Monday evening (video here). We recommend reading all three original texts, and provide analysis of the context of all three below.

On March 4, US President Barack Obama delivered a speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee's (AIPAC) annual policy conference. In his speech Obama emphasised his strong support for the State of Israel, and policy on Iran.

This blog post looks at a variety of resposes to the speech.

Seldom has there been such a brazen attempt to pass off pantomime as intelligent debate.

Saturday's edition of the Sydney Morning Herald's (SMH) weekly "The Question" section - which canvasses the opinions of four experts with presumed standing on a specific issue - addressed the topic of "Is the West destined for war with Iran? Deepening distrust is fuelling a new round of sabre-rattling."

A fair enough subject for discussion, however, the range of views left a lot to be desired...

This Update features two new and penetrating analyses of the ructions and political disagreements currently roiling Hamas, as well as an important new expression of Israel's dilemmas vis-a-vis Iran's nuclear program in the lead up to Israeli PM Netanyahu's trip to Washington next week.

First up is the always excellently informed top Israeli journalist, Ehud Yaari, sorting out the power struggles within Hamas. Yaari says that the once unassailable Hamas political leader Khaled Meshaal now seems to be in deep trouble, cut off from a base of operations and with increasingly public denunciations of his policies from within Hamas' senior ranks...

Iran's policies now lie at the centre of world politics. Far too little attention, however, is being paid to the unique ideological atmosphere that makes the Iranian nuclear weapons program so dangerous.

Holocaust denial is certainly the cruellest aspect of this ideology, for whoever denies the Holocaust kills the victims a second time. The denial of the Holocaust is also its most bewildering aspect - no other crime in history is better documented.

When accepting the Academy Award for Best Foreign Language Film last night, for his film Separation, Iranian filmmaker Asghar Farhadi took a veiled stab at the regime ruling Iran. Farhadi expressed how grateful he was that Iran was being recognised for its "glorious culture" and spoke of the Iranian people's rejection of "hostility and resentment".

At this time, many Iranians all over the world are watching us and I imagine them to be very happy. They are happy not just because of an important award or a film or filmmaker, but because at the time when talk of war, intimidation and aggression is exchanged between politicians, the name of their country Iran is spoken here through...

This Update includes two new pieces by experts attempting to explain how Teheran views the current nuclear standoff - a vital piece of the puzzle if policies are to be implemented to influence the behaviour of Iran's leaders.

First up is Ray Takeyh of the US Council on Foreign Relations, who points out that the primary reason the leaders of the Iranian regime believe they need nuclear weapons is because, for historical reasons, they both see themselves as the "natural hegemons" of the region, and are a revolutionary regime, whose purpose is to export their revolution to other countries...

Last night, ABC's Four Corners program focussed on the uprising in Syria. The program mostly featured a British Channel Four documentary on the Assad regime's systematic torture of Syrian opposition-members, including children, which gave a shocking insight into the events besetting Syrians opposed to their government's policies. The program ended, however, with host Kerry O'Brien interviewing notorious Middle-East correspondent Robert Fisk for 15 minutes in which Fisk was essentially given a pedestal to promulgate his views unchallenged...

The bomb attack on an Israeli diplomat's car in New Delhi on February 13 by suspected Iranian operatives has opened a national debate among Indian commentators and lawmakers over the country's close trading ties to Iran.

Unlike China, Iran's other major trading partner, India maintains a close relationship with Israel as a top client of the Israeli defence industry, adding a layer of complexity to the situation...

In an interview with the ABC radio show "The World Today" yesterday afternoon, Geneive Abdo, a former Guardian journalist in Iran now working as an Iran expert at a Washington thinktank:

• Said it's "entirely possible" Israel bombed their own embassies to provoke a war with Iran.
• Complained about the "extremely powerful" Jewish lobby in the US.
• Argued that the "very extremist Israeli government" has not even considered the dangers of a military strike on Iran, and lacks "any voices of reason" - basing her argument on the grounds of what Israel "did for many years in Lebanon" (Abdo is of Lebanese-American extraction).

Also today: Egyptian authorities create an anti-American conspiracy while they respect the human rights of terrorists but not refugees.

Following up on yesterday's post on the extreme statements of Hamas Prime Minister Ismael Haniyah in Iran, The Jerusalem Post reports that Haniyeh made some additional extreme statements on his final day in the country - vowing Hamas will continue to rely on violence against Israel and reject compromise.

Yesterday there was another failed act of terrorism in Bangkok, likely to be linked to Iran and Hezbollah.  This latest failed terrorist attack follows attacks on Israeli embassy personnel in India and Georgia a day earlier (see previous blog post). It also follows a string of attempted terrorist attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets that have thankfully been thwarted in places including Bangkok and Baku, Azerbaijan.

The question many are grappling with is that if Iran and Hezbollah, generally both thought to have dangerously competent cover operation wings, are behind these terrorists attacks, why weren't they more effective?

In the aftermath of the recent Qatari-brokered reconciliation agreement between Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, many have suggested that Hamas is moderating both its long-standing goals of Israel's destruction and its traditional rejection of any negotiations with Israel. But Hamas' leadership in Gaza, spearheaded Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh and Foreign Minister Mahmoud al-Zahar, has been making it very clear that they do not support any such change...

As was widely reported, Israeli embassy personnel were attacked in Georgia and India yesterday.

In the first attack, Tal Yehoshua-Koren, the wife of an Israeli Defense Ministry official and an employee of the embassy in India was wounded when a bomb exploded in her car.  In the second attack, an embassy staffer in Tbilisi discovered a bomb underneath his car as he was driving to the embassy.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran of being responsible for the attacks, which occurred one day after the fourth anniversary of the killing of a senior Hezbollah official, Imad Mughniyeh. Both Hezbollah and Iran have blamed Israel for Mughniyeh's assassination, and Hezbollah has repeatedly sworn revenge.

This blog post recommends analysis on what these attacks could mean...

Literally Earth-shattering, according to Iranian state media outlet Press TV:

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei says the powerful feelings of the regional nations towards Gaza have been instrumental in the eruption of the region's volcano.

There is, of course, a chance that he was speaking figuratively, although this would not be the first time an Iranian cleric linked a natural disaster with global politics. There was, for instance, those earthquakes two years ago caused by promiscuous women, or the time that European countries stole Iran's rain, leading to a widespread drought. The more sinister part of Khamenei's statement, which emerged from a recent meeting with Ismail Haniyeh -- Hamas' leader in Gaza -- concerned Iranian support to Hamas...

Fascinating reports, interesting analysis and some stories that are just plain funny: a round-up of items from today's media.

Also today: Jewish refugees from the Arab world, Jews still in the Persian world, more on Palestinian unity, Egypt-US ties growing weak and Iran arming Syria to the teeth.

Also today: Obama's pre-Superbowl interview, an imprisoned Iranian dissident and more going wrong with Egypt's "democracy".

Also includes: more on Iran's nuclear program and the possibility of an Israeli strike, Holocaust graves rediscovered, an anti-Israel "journalist" exposed and a man in Melbourne who flys the Swastika.

Iranian leaders have done it again - publicly stating their intention to destroy Israel.

As was widely reported, the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 3 said in a speech to worshippers at prayers in Teheran and broadcast on state TV, that Israel is a "cancerous tumor that should be cut and will be cut."

Khamenei also said, "From now on, in any place, if any nation or any group confronts the Zionist regime, we will endorse and we will help. We have no fear expressing this".

But less noticed was that other significant sources in Iran are discussing both the timing and the strategic details of an Iranian attack on Israel...

Daily summary of news stories that readers may have missed otherwise.

Wednesday was the 33rd anniversary of the return from exile of Iran's then-revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. In celebration, the Iranian regime chose to stage a reenactment of the triumphant moment, with the Iranian airforce marching a larger than life cutout of the Ayatollah off an airplane in an elaborate parade.

Photographs of the event were made available on the semi-official Mehr news agency and have since created an Iranian viral sensation. David Goodman has reported the response...

Last week, Israel Defence Minister Ehud Barak spoke at the annual Davos Forum, and told listeners that tough sanctions on Iran may be too late because Iran was " drifting into what we call an immunity zone where practically no surgical [military operation] could block them." Israeli concern over Iran's nuclear program is clearly reaching a crescendo. So an article by veteran Israeli security correspondent Ronen Bergman in last weekend's New York Times magazine on Israeli thinking on the possibility of a limited military strike to delay the project has gained considerable attention.

Over the past 10 to 15 years, China has become a rising power in the Middle East, rivalling the United States and Russia for strategic influence.

Its presence in the region rests squarely on a strategic relationship with Iran, and friendly, interlocking relations with Arab oil states to ensure a constant flow of energy resources to fuel China's insatiable economy, and to contain separatist movements among its Muslim Uighur Turkic ethnic minority in Xinjiang province, northwestern China.

This update looks at the latest sanctions imposed by the US and European Union on Iran’s oil industry and Central Bank; how an Islamist-controlled Egyptian Parliament will affect the country's ties with Israel; and the chances of Hamas winning Palestinian elections mooted to be held in May.

Earlier in the week, Overland editor Jeff Sparrow interpreted remarks from US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta that Iran is not trying to develop a "nuclear weapon", but a "nuclear capability" to mean that Iran's nuclear program is entirely legal. While Sparrow was using this quote to help support a perverse conspiracy theory involving Israel, for reasons unknown, trying to dupe the rest of the world into punishing Iran, Panetta is not the only official to have stated that Iran is not developing a nuclear weapon. In fact, Panetta himself has made it clear that Iran could have a nuclear weapon within a year, were it to make the decision to build one. Furthermore, Reuters reported yesterday that Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said something similar, albeit in more detail...

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report released in November 2011 provides the strongest evidence to date that Iran has undertaken research and experiments geared towards developing nuclear weapons. And just last week, the IAEA confirmed that Iran was enriching uranium up to 20 percent, a major step toward weapons grade level, at an underground site at ‘Fordow', a once-secret underground site revealed in September 2009 by the US, France and Britain.

This Update offers threes pieces related to recent news on the ongoing crisis over Iran's nuclear program.

First up, former security adviser to the British government Andrew Cummings explains the rationale behind the campaign of covert action against Iran, as epitomised by the killing of an Iranian nuclear scientist last week. Cummings argues that those who assert that such moves are dangerous fail to understand that the alternatives are even more risky and fraught.

Jeff Sparrow, the editor of literary journal Overland, has written a missive in The Drum today on the "terrorism campaign" going on in Iran. This refers not to what first comes to mind when one reads "Iran" and "terror campaign" in the same sentence, but rather a horrendeous campaign of murder and intimidation against scientists being waged, of course, by Israel: (emphasis added)

Last Wednesday, a motorcyclist attached a bomb to a car carrying a man called Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, killing him instantly, and injuring his two companions.

That was merely the latest atrocity inflicted upon individuals and facilities associated with nuclear physics in that country ... this is terrorism, pure and simple - the systematic infliction of deadly violence launched against civilians and their families so as to create a climate of fear among Iranian physicists and other nuclear personnel. 

As Sparrow explains, the assassinations of Iranian nuclear physicists cannot be justified by pointing out that they are working towards a nuclear weapon. You see... 

This Updates leads with two articles on the likely policies of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood now that it has won the parliamentary election, gaining approximately 41% of seats with other Islamist groups taking the Islamist bloc up to something like 2/3 of all seats.

First up is Washington Institute expert on Egyptian politics Eric Trager, looking at the likely agenda of the Brotherhood in power. He says that the agenda will be theocracy internally, and confrontation internationally, and that expectations that the group will moderate are very unlikely to be met - offering some behavioural evidence for this.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), confirmed on January 10, that Iran has started enriching uranium up to 20 percent at an underground site at ‘Fordow', near the Shi'ite Muslim holy city of Qom.

Iran has maintained that its nuclear program is for civilian peaceful purposes. However, the underground enrichment facility ‘Fordow' casts further doubt on Iran's statements that the facility is for civilian purposes. The site was an Iranian secret that was only revealed in September 2009 by the US, France and Britain.

Iran's enrichment of uranium at 20 percent also suggests that that its nuclear program is not for civilian use, which would enrich uranium at around 3.5 percent - the level needed for nuclear power plants.

Don't listen to the nuclear nonsense, screamed one of the main left-wing weeklies, the New Statesman, only days after a sober and authoritative International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report had laid bare Iran's pursuit of a nuclear bomb.

Why do some of our intellectuals find it so very difficult to see dictatorship when it is clear, or to summon up the moral clarity to oppose it? This question has preoccupied me since 9/11. It led me to create the online journal Democratiya and to co-author the statement of principles for a new democratic left, The Euston Manifesto.

This Update features two pieces on how Damascus-dependent terrorist organisations Hamas and Hezbollah have coped with the possible loss of President Bashar al-Assad as a key ally in the wake of the recent unrest in Syria.

First up is veteran Israeli Arab Affairs analyst Pinhas Inbari, who looks at Hamas' situation in the wake of the uncertain future in Syria and also Egypt. He notes that the leadership of Hamas is quite happy to be moving its alliance from Damascus to a Cairo dominated by their Muslim Brotherhood allies, as looks likely to eventuate.

Oft-quoted Australian "strategic analyst" Hugh White had a piece in The Age yesterday day on the Iranian nuclear crisis which betrayed such a lack of serious and logical strategic thought, so many shallow and glib yet ill-informed assumptions, that it seemed to be simply begging for a thorough "fisking" (Urban Dictionary definition: "The word is derived from articles written by Robert Fisk that were easily refuted, and refers to a point-by-point debunking of lies and/or idiocies.") Here's my effort.

As we noted in a post last week, the EU lat weeked imposed new tougher sanctions on Iran, and today Australia followed suit.

Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd announced from Lithuania that Australian intends to impose additional sanctions in response to Iran's continuing non-compliance with United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions on its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, the US Senate has voted unanimously to pass the most stringent economic sanctions against Iran to date. However, the move was opposed to by the Obama administration.

AIJAC welcomes the announcement by Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd that Australia will be pursuing additional sanctions against Iran, including measures that will "further restrict business with Iran's petroleum and financial sectors."

Hopefully, these measures will, when enacted, bring Australia into line with the international consensus developing, which includes the US, EU and Canada, that, in the wake of the latest IAEA report on Iran's illegal nuclear program, the time has come to bring the maximum diplomatic/economic pressures on the Iranian regime before it is too late.

Following the Iranian ‘mob' attack on the British embassy, France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands have recalled their ambassadors temporarily from Iran. The UK immediately closed its embassy in Iran and ordered Iran's dipxlomatic staff to leave London.

A meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels condemned the attack on the British embassy, and announced new economic and travel sanctions on Iran to deter its nuclear program.  The sanctions will freeze the assets of 143 companies and ban 37 Iranian nationals described as "directly involved in Iran's nuclear activities" from entering the EU.  However, the EU did not follow Britain, Canada and the US which severed all dealings with Iran's Central Bank.  France has also been urging collective EU action to follow the British example and also to stop oil imports from Iran.

The US Congress also seems poised to push stronger action on Iran. On December 1, the US Senate unanimously approved tougher sanctions against Iran, voting to penalise foreign financial institutions that do business with Iran's Central Bank - the main conduit for its oil revenues...

Following on from this post concerning an accusation of Israel supposedly "pinkwashing" its public image by spruiking its record on gay rights to hide alleged injustices, a number of gay writers have penned scathing responses in the Jewish and international media.

Writing in the Forward, Jay Michaelson gives a critique of the piece by Sarah Schulman in the New York Times that began the whole kerfuffle...

Following increasing threats of sanctions over the Iranian nuclear program, as was being progressively reported in the Guardian's liveblog, the UK embassy in Iran was stormed last night (Australia time) by a group of supposed "students". The British government has unequivocally held the Iranian regime responsible.

Even though France has been the strongest European champion of the new round of sanctions, as British journalist Christopher de Bellaigue noted in a 2008 article, the British hold a special place in Iranian paranoia...

Speaking to CNN recently, Israel's Defence Minister Ehud Barak posed a terrifying scenario:

"Who would have come to rescue Kuwait when it was taken by Saddam Hussein 20 years ago, if Saddam could have said credibly enough that he has three or four crude nuclear devices?"

The answer of course, is that no one would have acted. In all likelihood, Iraq would still be in control of Kuwait and all its oil wealth today and Saddam would still likely be in power.

The long awaited and much overdue Annex of the November 2011 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report was presented to the IAEA Board of Governors and the UN Security Council on November 8, 2011. Although the Annex contains much interesting and fresh information, its basic message that Iran is actively engaged in the development of nuclear weapons should not come as a surprise to anyone who has followed the developments reported in the IAEA periodic reports.

"Something like this might really happen," warned the narrator of the 1959 comedy "The Mouse that Roared" while a nuclear explosion was displayed in the background. And then, before proceeding to the story about a remote duchy that saves itself from bankruptcy by stealing a doomsday bomb, the narrator explained: "We thought we should put you in the proper mood."

Faced with a steadily maturing Iranian nuclear program, Israel has long been in the proper mood, but its consequent efforts to convince the world that "something like this might happen" have so far registered partial success at best.

In the latest development from the ongoing saga surrounding the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, the UN will be holding off on the prosecution of the suspected assassins for the time being.

As reported, legal proceedings against Mustafa Badreddine, Salam Ayyash, Hussein Anaissi and Assad Sabra, Hezbollah members considered responsible for the assassination of Hariri, will not proceed in absentia.

Rather, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, the UN-backed body tasked with prosecuting and resolving this matter, will wait for Lebanese authorities to arrest the four suspects.

This Update features three pieces commenting on the international debate about a new round of sanctions on Iran - with the US, Britain and Canada announcing new measures on Monday, and Europe agreeing "in principle" to expand sanctions a couple of days later

First up is an editorial from the Washington Post, in which the paper argues that the new sanctions announced by the US Administration amount to "half-measures". Instead, the paper argues, the sorts of tough sanctions proposed by French President Nicholas Sarkozy early this week should be adopted - including a freeze on the assets of Iran's central bank, and a complete embargo on all petroleum purchases from Iran being adopted by a coalition of Western states.

New York Times journalist Rick Gladstone has reported on a rare act of defiance from Iran's internal media, stemming from an all-too-familiar crackdown on the messages that media officials disseminate.

Iran's main government-run newspaper was published Tuesday without a front-page headline, replaced by photographs of its headquarters during an assault the day earlier by forces working for the judiciary who briefly arrested its top official - the media adviser to the president - and more than 30 others.

The presentation of the front page appeared to be an act of protest by the newspaper over the unusual episode on Monday, which judiciary officials described as...

Former DFAT head Richard Woolcott wrote a piece for the Age (11/11) critical of Australia's vote against Palestinian membership of UNESCO. Having spent more than half his article setting out the merits of Australia obtaining a seat on the UN Security Council, he then wrote, "In these circumstances, I find it both surprising and a decisive setback to our election prospects that the Prime Minister decided Australia should vote against the admission of Palestine to UNESCO."

Today's Update features two pieces on the worsening international position of Syria's Assad regime, in the wake of Syria's suspension by the Arab League, a call by Jordan's King Abdullah for Assad to step down, and new European sanctions. All this occurred as the killing went on in defiance of an Arab League peace plan (at least 40 people were reportedly killing on Monday, some disturbing video is here) and following attacks in Syria and Lebanon by pro-regime mobs on the Embassies of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Jordan.

As outlined in yesterday's update, the UN's atomic energy watchdog has just released a report that just falls short of definitively stating that Iran has a nuclear weapons program - seemingly the closest that the UN ever comes to an unequivocal condemnation of a country that is not Israel. The report has emerged amid rumours that Israel is gearing-up for an attack on Iran and is busy soliciting support from allies in the UK and the US.

Predictably, Iran did not respond with steps to assure the international community that its nuclear program is peaceful, but instead blamed an American conspiracy and then threatened to destroy Israel.

Iran denies the allegations and says the evidence used by the U.N. nuclear watchdog was fabricated by the United States and its allies. It has insisted that its nuclear program is aimed only at generating electricity and ensuring an independent fuel supply for its nuclear power plants.

... "If smoke columns rise from our nuclear facilities, then this scenario could happen in other areas," said Brig. Gen. Massoud Jazayeri, deputy chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces. "The Dimona station in Israel is the easiest...

As readers may be aware, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Tuesday released a report into Iran's nuclear program which is being described by diplomats as "the most damning report ever published by the IAEA." The report itself is available in full here - the key extracts are collected here and here.

We lead with a summary of the report's key findings from Washington Institute for Near East Policy expert Simon Henderson. He pays particular attention to the report's revelations concerning where Iran obtained its nuclear technology - from Pakistan mainly, but also  possibly from Russia.

A new International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report due to be released tomorrow is believed to contain compelling evidence that Iran is now at the end stage of its nuclear research program and is actively working on weaponisation technologies.

Ahead of the report's scheduled release we present a range of reading that predicts what the report will likely detail, where the effort to contain Iran's nuclear weapons program is at and whether the time has come to move from economic sanctions to military options.

This Update features two comments on the vote by the UN Educational, Social and Culture Organisation (UNESCO) to admit "Palestine" as a full member on Monday, a measure opposed by the Australia (see AIJAC's media release on the Australian vote here).  It also contains some comments on reports originating in the Israeli press alleging that the Israeli Government is stepping up preparations for a possible military strike on Iran's nuclear program.

A whole series of events last night made an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities suddenly seem far closer than had previously been the case. After a week of speculation in the Israeli press, Haaretz reported yesterday that the Prime Minister and Defence Minister are trying to gain cabinet support for a strike.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are trying to muster a majority in the cabinet in favor of military action against Iran, a senior Israeli official has said. According to the official, there is a "small advantage" in the cabinet for the opponents of such an attack.

Netanyahu and Barak recently persuaded Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who previously objected to attacking Iran, to support such a move.

This report coincided with the test-firing of a new long-range Israeli missile, which could be capable of reaching targets in Iran...

International legal scholar Louis René Beres, US Admiral (ret.) Leon Edney and US Lt Gen (ret.) Thomas G. McInerney have written an insightful article in Haaretz, looking at the current Iranian nuclear predicament and the various possible responses, focusing on the legality of a pre-emptive strike. They argue that the risk presented by a nuclear Iran is so great that a US strike is at least likely to be justifiable.

The Caroline Doctrine notes an implicit distinction between preventive war (which is never legal ), and preemptive war. Even the latter is not permitted merely to protect oneself against an emerging threat, but only when the danger posed is "instant" and "overwhelming."...

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As noted in the last Update, the recently exposed alleged Iranian plot to kill the Saudi Ambassador to the US at a Washington restaurant - and commit a number of the other terror attacks in the US - is a big story which has provoked much commentary and analysis.

Some of that analysis, such as by former CIA agent Robert Baer on ABC-TV's "Lateline" has cast doubt on the story, arguing the alleged plot, as outlined, appears too amateurish and slapdash to be the work of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp.

This morning (Australian time), US Attorney-General Eric Holder announced that two men had been charged with attempting to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the US and, more significantly, doing so on behalf of the Iranian government. The two men were Manssor Arbabsiar, a naturalised US citizen of Iranian origin, and Gholam Shakuri, who is believed to be in Iran. Incredibly, Arbabsiar cooperated with the US authorities once arrested and so much of the information on the assassination plot was collected from his testimony.

Naturally, the Iranian government has denied the allegations and blamed a Zionist conspiracy.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast called the claims a "prefabricated scenario" and a "ridiculous show...

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The Australian Government has rightly condemned the Iranian decision to punish Iranian actress Marzieh Vafamehr with 90 lashes for participating in an Australian-made film that was critical of the Iranian regime. In a sense, however, Vafamehr is lucky that her "crime" had an Australian connection - this was enough to muster international support for her situation and will hopefully lead to her receiving better treatment. Unfortunately, the reprehensible abuse in Vafamehr's case is just another episode in the Islamic Republic's constant suppression of any dissent or criticism.

As noted in yesterday's Wall Street Journal by American-Iranian journalist Roxana Saberi, who was arrested in Iran in 2009 but freed under international pressure, while foreigners with international backing tend to be quickly released by the Iranians, Iran's hundreds of domestic political prisoners are rarely as lucky.

Just after my release from a Tehran prison in May 2009, an Iranian prisoner wrote an open letter entitled, "I wish I were a Roxana." Haleh Rouhi, a follower of Iran's minority Baha'i faith, was serving a four-year sentence for antiregime propaganda, although she said she was simply "teaching the alphabet and numbers" to underserved children...

Today's Update looks at Syria, Iran and Turkey against the backdrop of the veto by China and Russia of sanctions by the UN Security Council against the Assad regime in Damascus for its ongoing violent crackdown against anti-government protesters. The resolution was supported by nine members but, significantly, Lebanon, which occupies a temporary seat on the Security Council, abstained from the vote, as did South Africa, India and Brazil. After the vote the EU indicated it intended passing its own sanctions against Syria. Meanwhile Turkey's PM Recep Erdogan continues to use the Syria issue and relentlessly attacks Israel for his own regional ambitions. We offer a number of articles that reveal the changing dynamics in the Middle East that are are not receiving sufficient attention in Australia and elsewhere.

In an amusing slip up captured by Foreign Policy's Colum Lynch, Dr Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's permanent representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, has been photographed sitting behind the Israeli desk. As Lynch notes, Iran rejects Israel's existence to such an extent that Iranian representatives are not permitted to utter the word "Israel" and rather refer to the "Zionist entity", making the photo (above) sadly ironic.

In fact, Iran seems to have been making the headlines a little over the last two days. Continuing the trend of leaving the important issues to the last minute, Iran's nuclear program is again on the agenda while the world's leaders are still gathered in New York. Graham Allison argues in today's Washington Post that the US should take-up the offer Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made at the beginning of last month to stop enriching uranium in exchange for being sold pre-enriched uranium...

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As readers are aware, the UN General Assembly session for 2011 has begun in New York amidst considerable drama of various sorts. While the media focus has mainly been on the status of the Palestinian bid to gain UN recognition as a state, there's a great deal more going on. This Update focuses on the various dramas occurring.

With the world focussed on other issues, Iran is continuing to both illegally enrich uranium and rapidly building up the infrastructure to do so even more quickly and efficiently.

It is clear that Iran is already well along on its course towards developing nuclear weapons for military purposes - and it is appearing inceasingly unlikely that anyone will stop it.

A nuclear Iran is also an immense danger to the Middle East. As former British PM Tony Blair, Peace Envoy for the Middle East, recently stated: 'If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons capability it would destabilise the region very, very badly."

Blair said that while Al Qaeda poses a significant threat to people across the world, he believes the bigger evil is Iran, which "support groups that are engaged with terrorism and the forces of reaction".

Blair said that he believes regime change in Iran is necessary and there needs to be military intervention if it acquires nuclear weapons capability.

While the tenth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks were being commemorated around the globe, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad chose to participate in the remembrances in his inimitable and subtle way - that is, by re-iterating his belief that it was all a US plot to have an excuse to kill Muslims.

According to recent reports Iran may be attempting to strike back at the West for the alleged cyber warfare that it has been suffering in recent months. As AP has identified, Iranian involvement may be behind recent attacks on US internet giants, as well as the CIA.

AMSTERDAM -- Hackers who broke into a Dutch web security firm have issued hundreds of bogus security certificates for spy agency websites including the CIA as well as for Internet giants like Google, Microsoft and Twitter, the government said Monday.

Experts say they suspect the hacker - or hackers - operated with the cooperation of the Iranian government.

While these hackings serve as further proof of Iran's persistent belligerence to the West, it is not only in the US and Europe that public opinion has been turning against the Islamic Republic...

Protests are raging again in Iran, this time ostensibly over the drying up of a salt lake in Iran's East Azerbaijan Province. It is true that the local people are suffering from the damage that the lake's gradual erosion has done to their economy, however the familiarity of videos such as the one below, showing grainy images of Iranian police shooting at protesters, who throw rocks in return, point to a general discontent with the ruling Ayatollah regime that boils just below the surface of the Islamic Republic.

The 1979 "Islamic Revolution" was the first case of a relatively young Islamist movement actually gaining dominion over an entire state. The subsquent deterioration of Iran was mirrored in the other Islamist "successes" in Afghanistan, Sudan, Gaza and large portions of Algeria, Yemen and Somalia. The totalitarian ideology that promises a return to the "glory days" of Islam through forced regression to a 7th-century civil society has to date yielded nothing but misery to those living under it. Yet, as this blog has been reporting, the ideology remains perhaps the most influential force in the Arab world, with its adherents looking increasingly likely to hijack the "Arab Spring" revolutions...

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Is Iran starting to pull back from Syria's Assad regime, its closest ally, as the unrest and bloodshed in Syria continues?

Ostensibly, there are some signs that Teheran is, at least verbally, starting to create a bit of distance from Damascus.

Firstly, Iran's Foreign Minister publicly suggested Syria should meet the "legitimate demands" of the protestors. Then Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on television that "the [Syrian] people should have the right to elect and get their freedoms"...

Israel's respected Middle East Analyst Ehud Yaari speaks to Rabbi Abraham Cooper of the Simon Weisenthal Centre on the main reason behind Iran's Gaza Missile Gambit; Why Hezbollah is quiet (so far); Post-Tahrir Sq trouble in Cairo, as over 100 groups urge government to sever ties with Israel; Iron Dome's surprising and promising results...

The Libyan regime is imploding, as rebels opposed to Muammar Gaddafi have now taken control of most of the Libyan capital. It is immensely inspiring to witness this triumph of the Libyan majority over a particularly ruthless, totalitarian and bloody dictator, achieved against great odds and at a terrible cost. As US President Barack Obama said in welcoming the news, "the future of Libya is in the hands of its people."

However, that future remains unclear. It will be important over the next few months and years that the international community not view the departure of Gaddafi as the end game and do what it can to continue to support Libya in its transition to democracy, while preventing extremists from hijacking the people's revolution.

The Iranian Government appears to either have an extremely warped sense of humour or is simply living on a different planet from the rest of us. This was displayed yet again today when the Iranian Foreign Ministry made the following statement, as reported by Bloomberg:

"Iran congratulates the Muslim people of Libya for the latest developments that arose from their months-long resistance and stand as another symbol of the popular movements in the region... The popular uprising in Libya shows once more that meeting people's rightful demands and respect for their opinions are undeniable necessities."

Of course, the most significant factor separating the Iranian rulers from Gaddafi's regime...

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According to a potentially very significant news story, Hamas and its long-time key patron, Iran, have had a falling out over the unrest in Syria...

While it is much too early to predict that the Hamas-Iran split will be permanent, if this did happen, it would be a major re-alignment of the Middle Eastern map, with important implications...

As violent riots spread throughout Britain, with hordes of young men robbing and looting everything in sight, an unexpected champion has emerged for Britain's aggrieved underclass. A call for Britain to restrain violence against their own people has come from none other than the Iranian Foreign Ministry. As reported by Iran's state-controlled Press TV:

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast urged the British government to order the police to stop their violent confrontation with the people, IRNA reported in the early hours of Tuesday...

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"There is a fifth dimension, beyond that which is known to man" may have kicked off each new episode of the Twilight Zone but it can equally be applied to the alternate reality that is the United Nations.

Bizarrely, this week, North Korea assumed the presidency of the UN's Conference on Disarmament despite being under a sanctions regime for its nuclear weapons program.

Another stark reminder of the astounding brutality displayed by the Assad regime in Syria surfaced last week when the Guardian translated and published a harrowing account of Syrian woman Samar Yazbek's shocking torture at the hands of Syrian authorities.

Two huge men entered the room. They stood in readiness, in plainclothes. One of them stood to the right and the other to the left. With a signal from his eyes, each seized me by the shoulders, though not roughly. They seized me as if I were some object, easy for them to move. I did not resist when they started to lift me out of my chair. I even stood up, surprised at what was happening...

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Iran's economy appears so inherently fragile, that concerted external financial pressure on its energy sector could bring the regime to its knees and Washington Institute for Near East Policy analyst Patrick Clawson shows how it can be done:

If oil prices decline -- or, more important, if the United States and its allies can dissuade countries and companies from paying for Iranian oil (Washington has no objections if they receive said oil, only if they pay for it) -- then the Islamic Republic could face serious problems paying for the checks to which the Iranian people are rapidly becoming accustomed.