By Colin Rubenstein

Canberra Times - Tuesday, 24 February 2004

IRAN marked 25 years of the Islamic Revolution earlier this month, but last week it also marked the end for hopes of democratising reform in that country, with an election rigged by the country's hardline rulers.

A likely continuing full-scale crisis in domestic politics, together with emerging evidence that Iran's November "admission" about its nuclear technology was less than forthright, suggests that the country will remain a problem for the international community for the foreseeable future.

Though Iran's reform movement has garnered much international attention in recent years, many Iranians are frustrated at the Parliament's inability to affect real reforms of the clerical theocracy that governs the nation.

The rift between reformists, who represent the 60-70 per cent of Iranians under the age of 30, was exacerbated this month with the banning (by the unelected, highly conservative Guardians Council) of more than 2500 candidates from parliamentary elections last Friday.

The move prompted most reformist parties to boycott the election, and the absence of reform-minded candidates certainly calls into question the validity of elections, but the likely abundance of conservative parliamentarians will be seen as a major victory by conservative mullahs.

From any Western perspective, the functional end of Iran's reform movement is a worrying sign. Although reformist politicians in the Majlis (parliament) have been unable to implement the changes for which they were elected in 1996 and 2000, their presence has kept the reform flame alive and given millions of Iranians hope for a future in which civil liberties, human rights, and freedom of expression are sacrosanct.

In the international arena, a strong mandate for conservatives, ruling directly in defiance of popular opinion, could spell a return to virulent, and often violent, anti-Western policies, both as part of the worldview of the clerical reactionaries, and as a distraction from domestic conflicts.

Iran is sure to continue its role as a major source of instability in the Middle East.

Then there is the nuclear issue. Iran's repeated insistence that it must develop its nuclear program to meet its energy requirements is hard to accept, given that it is home to fully one-tenth the world's oil supply and has the largest reserves of natural gas in the world.

In addition, last week the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported it had discovered undeclared plans for an advanced Pak-2 uranium-enrichment facility, giving the lie to both Iran's November promise that "a new chapter has been started, which is characterised by pro-active cooperation and transparency" and to its promise to suspend enrichment in return for looser, civilian-based IAEA inspections.

Clerical leaders have openly said the suspension is purely temporary and will be reversed soon.

Importantly, the issue is not merely American. In contrast to the period leading up to the Iraq war last year, France and Germany, traditional proponents of detente and constructive dialogue with Iran, have expressed "concern" regarding Iran's nuclear proliferation, and have pushed for tighter controls on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Lastly, Iran remains an important financial support for Islamic terrorists the world over, and nowhere more than with regard to Israel. Iran remains committed to Israel's destruction and openly funds and supports Hamas and Islamic Jihad suicide bombers, Palestinian Authority-affiliated Tanzim and al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, Lebanese Hezbollah fighters and other regional terror groups.

Even the recent humanitarian relief effort after the disastrous earthquake in the Iranian city of Bam in late December was exploited by the Iranian regime for the support of terrorists.

Flights carrying humanitarian supplies from Damascus were filled on their return trip with arms and military equipment for Hezbollah, according to intelligence reports.

On a wider scale, Iran provides support for al-Qaeda-linked groups, and is widely suspected to have been involved in several attacks on Jewish targets in South America and Turkey during the 1990s.

In all, security experts estimate Iranian proxies now operate in 59 countries, including Australia

Aside from the danger that a nuclear Iran poses to the region, and to the Western world at large, perhaps the greater danger is Iran's willingness to manufacture and sell nuclear fuel on the international market.

Especially in light of Iran's recent admission that it plans an advanced high-speed centrifuge to facilitate uranium enrichment, the possibility that Iran could supply Hamas, Hezbollah - or al-Qaeda - with nuclear weapons is far from unthinkable.

Indeed, the combination of political extremism with nuclear proliferation is potentially lethal, on a scale that could make September 11 look like child's play.

Given Iran's role in financing and arming terrorists and rogue groups around the world, in addition to its ongoing commitment to Islamic fundamentalism and official hostility to all things Western, the international community - including Australia - must wake up to the danger posed by a nuclear Iran.

A 2003 IAEA report says Iran's nuclear program has been active for 18 years and involves both complex technologies to separate uranium and centrifuges for enriching plutonium, and a completed nuclear facility at Bushehr will be large enough to produce plutonium for dozens of nuclear weapons annually.

IAEA inspections cannot guarantee this will not happen - North Korea succeeded both in continuing a nuclear-weapons program under inspection, and then simply withdrew from the treaty when more freedom was desired to build weapons with declared facilities.

In short, a nuclear Iran is neither theoretical nor far in the future.

The international community, and specifically the IAEA, have an obligation to prevent Iran realising its nuclear ambitions. IAEA inspectors must act on the growing body of evidence that Iran's nuclear program is both advanced and potentially threatening.

The international community must act decisively - now - to prevent such an occurrence.